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Bitcoin longterm short idea

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Welcome.

Last idea/trade is closed and we are on to the Next.
The last one was the most accurate trade in the history if tradingview.

Anyways lets keep doing good trades. I will keep updating this idea
as we go along.

As we said in the last idea, if the trendline was broken, we will Shift to becoming a bear.

I have entered a small position, at 6,8k With levrage 5x.
I am not buying a big position unless the trading god gift me a good entry, With leverage you dont fakk around.....
you get a good entry or you dont trade simple.

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This drop suprised many of us and we didnt mange to get entry.
Most of us was long from 6k to 7,2 and got good Money there.

I have 2 scenarios in my mind when trading bear Waves.
First the chart above look at how stretched pice is from the 20 EMA,
there is a high propability of a Bounce or sideways movment for letting the avrage cathup to price. Remmember price always og back to the mean.

We are day 22 of this cycle, so there is a small probability of price retesting 7k
Anyways if we get this kind of scenarios i am adding to my position.

This Next cycle is a big one, and the trendline on the above chart will be broken, once that happen i want to be in a good position.

I will keep you updated as we go along.

Hit the like button so we can get a big community.
And i wont sell you crappy trading courses or exclusive VIP chat Groups like the rest of the Authors on tradingview, LOL

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And remmember in real life a bear eats a bull. So we will just fallow nature on this one.

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This Next cycle is a Intermediate cycle (ICL), if the trendline breaks in the above chart, that will confirm this move is under progress, and thats going to be a bloodbath to be honest.

To be honest, i dont think the entry matters to much, it Depends on what leverage you use. If you use high levereage you either get good entry or you go bankrupt. If you use like 2-3x leverage, and you have a liqudation pirce of 10k, then you are safe.

Again, the plan: We are looking to add Our position, when is that? we are look for sideways to Bounce to to the 20EMA.

when do we get out? The cycles is Down for another moneth. After that it becomes mature and we need to reduce risk and look for another trade since the sheep will have joined.

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We never went below the 25 Level of the rsi(7). After such a big bull market, it should og there.

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I added to my small position just now. I am not using high leverage on this one.
But expect the august low to be taken out. The remaining Capital available i will only use if i get a better entry. If not i am satisfied With my current position.

Now comes the boring part, we taken position and have to wait... boring as fakk.... Let the sheep and the mental retarded cry, scream, pump, dump, and all the mental stuff they do... we dont care we made the Call we betted Money on the side of the market we support. And had the balls With high semen to execute the idea.

I will keep watching, but the trendline connecting the two last lows will be taken out.

Next futures contract expires Sep 16, so i expect price will be downards the Next. We protected ourself to the possibility of a Bounce, by having Capital available incase that happen.

When october comes i am not sure, historical seassonal chart says october to december is strong months for bitcoin, so i will have a open mind.

Remmember dont fall in low With either side, Our job is to make Money, we dont care where the market goes.

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Manipulators often manipulate in the weekends, more often then not that the direction for rest of the week.

When will people panic??? remmember in the bull market from 2017, there are stil many people holding huge positions of bitcoin, when will they say ¨Fakk this i am done¨ ??

So far nothing changed, i expect the aug low to be taken out, then we will watch and see wha happens.

When gold had a smiliar structure breached, it was like falling knife, if you were long at that time, you probally commited sucicide.

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A retest of the 20EMA is normal, i wont be suprised if that happen.
Price also get oversold on the RSI, and stay that way for a long time.

Nothing changed my view.

The only way i will change my view is if the trendline connection all the highs in 2018 gets broken. That would be a huge bullish signal.

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Remmember i said trading was boring.... well this is how making money looks like.
Thats why most people never make money, making money is suspposed to be fun and glamorus and you know what.....

In reality its the same approch, same teqhnique everytime..... its just reptition, just like any other sports, repetition gets the resluts.

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Far stretched below the 200EMA, the arages must catch up a little for more dowside to come.

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Its always the same, the market sucks people into buying. People belive its a bottom, but based on our approch its not.

My expectations was since price went down to fast, price had to revert back to the mean, its almost at the 20EMA.

But its nothing to realy, just wait and see.
If the trendline connecting the high aug and september gets broken, we will close the position, if not we continue being short.

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Looks like price is moving down, this is as expected, we are at day 35 of this daily cycle.

Timing band of a cycle low is between 40 to 60 days, since this cycle is also a part of the weekly cycle low, we expect anothor fake rally to lure people inn, then the cycle might get stretched to 80-90 days.

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Its wierd, cycles are down ut price is flat.
I reduced my leverage since it felt wierd to me.
If we get 2 closes above the 20EMA i am closing the position.

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I closed the position at 6500, thats basicly my avrage price.

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It looks like an early cycle low at 36 days, stil have to watch, but its likely.

Things to watch are as fallowing.
If the trendlines breaks thats bullish, i expect that we touch the trendline, and thats when i will reenter the short.

The reasson i stil belive thats we will og lower is because the weekly cycle is Down, we are at week 13, since the last weekly cycle low, and usally they have last from 19weeks to 30 weeks.

If i cant sleep because of a trade, i just Close it, thats why i closed the trade.
Again price was stretched far below the 200EMA, and prie always goes abck to the mean, watch that avrage.

I will renter if it goes there, as for now i will jsut watch the price.

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Just been watching the price.

I belive we had a short 36 day cycle and now we are at day 13 of the New daily cycle. We are in the timing band for weekly cycle decline, and therefor i stil belive we will head lower.

But i didnt want to post anything, since the risk for entering was big. The price came Close to the trendline, and With all the bots and algorithims in this market, one bot could have triggerd break of the trendline and price could shoot up to 7k rather quickly, it stil can.

So i wont advice you to do much, i am short With a avrage price of 6,5k.
But even tough the cycle is Down, manipulation can happen, and bots and algorothims can trigger break of the trendline.

Take position at Your own risk.

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Look at these bars, they realy want it to go lower.
I wont argue with them, if they want it lower i will join them.

As always we dont care about bulls or bear porn, we just want to be on the right side.

Stil risky, the trendline is stil within reach and if some bots/algorithems manipulate the price it can easily make a break trough.

Trade at your own risk, but most of you know my own position.

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A war going on lol.

I can just imagine if one has weak mental health, how this price swing will destroy the general trader.

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After a quick look, all the authors on tradingview are changing to berish agian since there calls to 7k is not working.

Can you imagine trading like that? No principles no sense of direction, only reacting to price not preparing in advance.

The sad part is all these authors are scamming people by offering courses, when there ideas have zero precent winrate. Be carefull of these scammers, there are to many on this site, its like an epidemic. They think by posting ideas they can all of a sudden scam and charge people for shit content.

Our position has not change, since when the idea was posted. I told you trading is boring. Its frustrating, it plays with your emotions making you confused about directions and your analysis.

Thats why most dont make money.

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There is a rumor about bitfinex doing maintance, dont remmeber the dates.
But if you short term trade, be realy carefull.

The bitmex Sharks will exploit this, either way.

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This chart is not BTC, but from gold back in 2014.
This side way movment reminded me of this periode when gold was going sideways.

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RSI wasnt going bullish or bearish, and the range got tighter and tighter, alot fo similaritys here.

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Back to the chart.

Considering my position i hope it dont break the trendline.
But as i said, price is Close to the trendline, a bot or bots can easily manipulate and break the trendline.

To be honest i hope it do break it, just to se how the market reacts in term of bullish or bearish.

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You probally wondered why i havnt posted. The reasson is the adming keep banning me for calling out scammers on this site.

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Anyways, we are at week 17. its within the timing band for a weekly cycle low.
A swing low on the weekly chart will confirm it, and it should be a rally.

But be carefull the low can be in already or it can be a lower low before a rally.
But now i have exited my short With a tiny proffit, and will looking for a long trade, i am just waiting for a Nice setup.

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Trade closed. New idea posted. Sorry for no comments.
Admins keep banning me.

Sharky8899.

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