بتكوينتم تحديثه Market Uncertainty Stalling Bitcoin at $9000
We can see that on a technical basis the market is stuck in a symmetrical triangle and inside another possible symmetrical triangle. The predicted movement is up based on 4 hr and 1 day RSI but as you can see from 45 min RSI a fairly even amount of tight support and resistance between $9000 and $9300 has developed and volume is dropping off considerably as this consolidation happens. If we don't get a trigger to the upside this sideways price action could continue through the triangle or perhaps creep slightly higher. A breakdown below the downward trendline would open up a fall to the bigger trendline going back to March 2017 which suggests a major resistance level around $7500.
As you would expect with growing uncertainty the "winner" will be whichever side doesn't capitulate faster. So if the market is feeling bearish then buyers might pull out much more suddenly. Given the current trend it seems more likely that we'll see a drop before we see a more definitive reversal.
Many positive indicators have suggested that Bitcoin has hit a bottom. These include Tom Lee's new "BMI" or Bitcoin Misery Index, which suggests that the current misery level of holding Bitcoin hasn't been this low since September 2011. That being said, the BMI mainly suggests 12 month buying windows, which doesn't mean that much in terms of precision.
Google Search Trends have been much more prominently discussed and over the last two weeks Bitcoin has flattened in relative search over the last 12 months at about 20, which is more or less what it was through the late summer through fall period of 2017. This could also reflect a bottoming out / consolidation period that allows some of the dumb money / speculation to die out while giving the technology more time to mature and grown organically.
While downside risk at this price level realistically could be 67% based on a dip to $3000, that seems like a distant probability based on the current market sentiment and positioning within a sideways moving structure inside another sideways moving structure. It seems that with price stability sellers will be lulled into cancelling orders and a slow creep back towards the major $9800 resistance level could play out. Given this lack of clearly favorable reward:risk this would be the ideal time to play short duration intraday trades with small position sizes. However, over the last day or two this seems to have already played itself out and the end stages of this game is when volume completely dries up and price becomes totally stagnant. I'm watching the charts and BTCUSD has been sitting at exactly $9100 for 12 straight minutes now as of Tuesday, March 13 5:44 PM EST.
Looking at the 45 min RSI you can clearly see a convergence where the market can't decide on which direction things are going to go. A negative trigger here seems more likely to push the market lower than a favorable trigger which is a reason to be cautious.
When considering the Mt. Gox liquidiations, it's important to understand that the market moved dramatically higher from the point in which this selling supposedly started in September 2017. If we're to consider the risk of unbacked Tethers being used to inflate the market then it would seem these two activities cancel each other out to some degree.
If we consider that the market could see more liquidations while no new Tethers will be used to inflate the market then this would point to a negative trend in the intermediate term. On a longer term that money could likely end back up in Bitcoin or the crypto markets so depending on the timeframe for distribution of those funds we might see another big buying opportunity like in February followed by a longer term bullish period. This would fit the historical model of Bitcoin growth.
I would *GUESS* the reason we're stalling out around $9100 is because the market tends to see downside risk at about 50% while short term upside reward from that 50% level is $9100.
As you would expect with growing uncertainty the "winner" will be whichever side doesn't capitulate faster. So if the market is feeling bearish then buyers might pull out much more suddenly. Given the current trend it seems more likely that we'll see a drop before we see a more definitive reversal.
Many positive indicators have suggested that Bitcoin has hit a bottom. These include Tom Lee's new "BMI" or Bitcoin Misery Index, which suggests that the current misery level of holding Bitcoin hasn't been this low since September 2011. That being said, the BMI mainly suggests 12 month buying windows, which doesn't mean that much in terms of precision.
Google Search Trends have been much more prominently discussed and over the last two weeks Bitcoin has flattened in relative search over the last 12 months at about 20, which is more or less what it was through the late summer through fall period of 2017. This could also reflect a bottoming out / consolidation period that allows some of the dumb money / speculation to die out while giving the technology more time to mature and grown organically.
While downside risk at this price level realistically could be 67% based on a dip to $3000, that seems like a distant probability based on the current market sentiment and positioning within a sideways moving structure inside another sideways moving structure. It seems that with price stability sellers will be lulled into cancelling orders and a slow creep back towards the major $9800 resistance level could play out. Given this lack of clearly favorable reward:risk this would be the ideal time to play short duration intraday trades with small position sizes. However, over the last day or two this seems to have already played itself out and the end stages of this game is when volume completely dries up and price becomes totally stagnant. I'm watching the charts and BTCUSD has been sitting at exactly $9100 for 12 straight minutes now as of Tuesday, March 13 5:44 PM EST.
Looking at the 45 min RSI you can clearly see a convergence where the market can't decide on which direction things are going to go. A negative trigger here seems more likely to push the market lower than a favorable trigger which is a reason to be cautious.
When considering the Mt. Gox liquidiations, it's important to understand that the market moved dramatically higher from the point in which this selling supposedly started in September 2017. If we're to consider the risk of unbacked Tethers being used to inflate the market then it would seem these two activities cancel each other out to some degree.
If we consider that the market could see more liquidations while no new Tethers will be used to inflate the market then this would point to a negative trend in the intermediate term. On a longer term that money could likely end back up in Bitcoin or the crypto markets so depending on the timeframe for distribution of those funds we might see another big buying opportunity like in February followed by a longer term bullish period. This would fit the historical model of Bitcoin growth.
I would *GUESS* the reason we're stalling out around $9100 is because the market tends to see downside risk at about 50% while short term upside reward from that 50% level is $9100.
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The 25% downside risk from the mid-point of the third projected triangle (~$10100) is about $7500, which would suggest this model seems to be playing out and the market could move higher without external triggers over the next 6-7 days but could then break down to as low as the March 2017 upward trendline.If we consider this as part of the bigger triangle formed by the downward trendline and the upward trendline then we are seeing a convergence by April 13 but a possible breakdown from the $7500 level or a breakout above $9300-10k could happen within the next two weeks.
Overall, I think it's valuable reading sentiment, understanding the regulatory risk environment which still poses a big threat but feels more contained as the market moves to self-regulate and eliminate that as a systemic risk.
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Should we see a dip to $7500 that could lead to 50 DMA crossing below 200 EMA which would signal a bear market and possibly even lower price levels ahead, which would be reminiscent of 2014.Unlike 2014 I think the network effects of Bitcoin are much stronger, technical progress for the market overall is well ahead of where we were in 2013/14, and any recurrences of the big dip to below 6k will be quickly negated by other major players looking to enter or consolidate their market position. It's just too early at this stage for a big pullback unless something even bigger happens like a nuclear war or global recession. So despite a lack of clear correlation, the pull of interest rates could start affecting Bitcoin since Bitcoin was born into an environment of low to zero interest rates. It would seem that Bitcoin as a growing asset in a global low interest rate would function well in states where the opposite is happening, i.e. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, with high inflation/interest rates, but in a global higher interest rate environment the overall move to risk aversion could make Bitcoin less appealing as a hedge.
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I noticed at the bottom an RSI Strategy Report was included in this. I run that RSI Strategy as a comparative tool to show indicators in the chart. Clearly, simply following RSI crossings isn't a reliable automated strategy. I've never even seen this before so it's interesting...ملاحظة
What's crazy about this drawdown is that once BTC hit $8764 it stalled and selling pressure became at least 2-3X higher than buying pressure yet on LTC charts you were seeing more buying pressure. That seems like a great arbitrage if you can swing it.The thing is the price isn't moving, which is so weird.
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Someone just bought 29.86 BTC at $8650 something...ملاحظة
What's concerning is that volume still seems rather low...ملاحظة
4 hr RSI and 45 min RSI aren't signaling oversold so best to wait it out. A 258k order prior to a reliable swing trade buy signal sounds like a bot going for a shorter duration trade ...ملاحظة
$8730 seems to be where the market is stalling out. Definitely seems like a disciplined market. Volume starting to pick up a bit more...ملاحظة
The orderly manner of this move suggests to me that we're less likely to see a huge drop than more sideways price action. Probably should've started trading on the one minute RSI when it hit $8600 the second time.ملاحظة
45 min and 4 hr RI never really confirmed a strong signal, which could suggest the market isn't so likely to correct further (for now).ملاحظة
I've been second guessing myself due to all of these dire predictions about the market and having made a few questionable trading decisions, but this small dip could've generated two positive trades based on guessing the 1 min RSI trigger around the $8620 level.ملاحظة
Ultimately, it comes down to risk:reward and based on the 45 min RSI and the 4 hr RSI it didn't seem worth the risk. The 4 hr RSI suggests this sideways move from $8600 to $8750 could be short lived. In the end I probably should have entered with a small position as I had planned with a disciplined approach rather than oversizing my position (by accident) like last time and getting all thrown off.ملاحظة
Wow, this could get ugly. Just blew right through $8500...ملاحظة
4 hr RSI STILL hasn't confirmed for me so I sold my two positions in XMR and BTC for a decent profit... 3.13% total gain in 1.5 hrملاحظة
XMR has indicated much more oversold than BTC at the 4 hr level but if I can capture another dip betting that BTC will continue to stay flat until 4 hr RSI confirms an oversold level then my risk management will pay off.ملاحظة
Took a flyer on a scalp trade... 0.74% in 10 min. Not really my idea of trading but it made some money so... Return would have been 50% higher (~1%) if not for fees...ملاحظة
Overall 4 hr through 30 min RSI looking bearish so better to wait for a more solid signal for entry...ملاحظة
4 hr ADX confirmed the strength of the previous draw down but since the market has been moving mostly sideways overall current ADX signals no particular trend. Best to wait for 4 hr RSI to suggest a more optimal entry. Volumes are up nicely so that's good. Volume pops on big dips indicate buying/momentum opportunities.ملاحظة
I pulled all my orders off the table because we're getting into the "in-between" hours when only Asian markets are active. We might need another 6.5 more hours before seeing some clear indicator of where the bottom is on this dip.ملاحظة
After seeing what seemed like promising conditions I got a little over enthusiastic and entered an ETC position that I wish I had made the first time it hit $16 and then doubled it because I wasn't taking that much risk overall then backed out of it because I was completely wrecking my overall trading strategy of following the lead of BTC... it's so hard to stay disciplined when FOMO is always lurking in your mind...ملاحظة
in retrospect what I should have done was cut my position size back to what it was supposed to be so I didn't completely take all of the risk off the table given favorable indicators.ملاحظة
24 hr volume way up now...ملاحظة
missed a great entry point between $7700-$7750 for a short trade.... because I needed a nap. Hopefully we don't get into sideways price action after this...ملاحظة
The 78.6% fib level from the previous low dip to ~6k is proving to be strong support (for now). Wouldn't be surprised to see a positive 4 hour candle here. This lower trendline support is 7.5k so if 7.7k doesn't hold then that is looking like a fairly strong level of support, especially if it gets hit in the after-hours period when volume might start to tail off.ملاحظة
In retrospect my ETC bottom was a good call so I should've just held it or bought back in but I had to sleep for a while...ملاحظة
very noticeable spoofing in the bid now... volume went from over 100 BTC at mid-market price to pull off after price moved $10 or so...ملاحظة
This Coindesk article, which I was too sleepy to read earlier, analyzing the effects of the Mt. Gox trustee sale could prove to be a bullish sentiment boost for a short term reversal:On four occasions the price of Bitcoin dropped subsequent to Kobayashi’s sales: Dec. 22, Jan. 17, Feb. 7, and Feb. 8, by 8.4 percent, 10.8 percent, 1.2 percent, and 2.2 percent respectively. Nevetherless the price of Bitcoin rebounded in each instance except for the day of Feb. 8.
Even though Kobayashi five sales represent over $300 mln in Bitcoin being sold over public exchanges, Kobayashi’s largest sale of 10,000 BTC that netted him around $86.6 mln only represents about .55 percent of the entire Bitcoin market cap, nothing to bat an eye at.
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I meant CoinTelegraphملاحظة
LTC is bumping up against an upward trendline from March 30 2017 now and flashing a 4 hr RSI that suggests an entry soon.ملاحظة
BTCUSD is running into some crazy resistance at $7850 so it's going to be interesting to see how this unfolds....ملاحظة
A huge buy wall just went in around $7820ملاحظة
And it's gone... or at least half the size...ملاحظة
Pretty weak volume right now...ملاحظة
And about 200 BTC of volume in the Bid just vanished again...ملاحظة
This spoofing is getting really intense except it's doing nothing for price. I don't see any big orders going through so it seems like a trickle of smaller buyers.ملاحظة
The only big order was a market sell for 12.07 BTC, which you would think could happen as a limit order since the bid looks so much more stacked...ملاحظة
The market is really getting pumped now but still not a lot of big ordersملاحظة
The price went $300 min 5 minutes on magical volume. If that isn't market manipulation I don't know what you call it. When these buyers all try to exit it could get ugly but maybe this magical spoofer will come back.ملاحظة
That was a missed opportunity I could not have predicted.ملاحظة
I can see how some whales might have wanted to squeeze shorts out of their positions, which would trigger positive momentum. Given clear manipulation in the market it seems like relying on indicators would be questionable.In this scenario I should have entered a percentage of my positions longer duration though every analyst was screaming for a dip to at least 7.5k
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The market just went up 5% in 20 minutes.ملاحظة
Volume is still increasing so maybe this will play out for a while.ملاحظة
The lesson here is that if you have $1.5 M when BTC is at $7850 then you can juice the market up 5% at 4:30 AM EST. But maybe because markets are opening in Europe/UK people are just buying the dip.ملاحظة
It seems like once the markets have hit about 15% draw down there's a solid reversal. Still, when the market clearly appears to have some manipulative qualities it's hard to believe that out of the blue some magical volume showed up.From the current $8225 price level it's hard to see why there's still so much support at $8200 because it seems like the intermediate 4-12 hour upside is maybe $8500 while the downside is around $7500. This is 2:1 risk:reward, clearly unfavorable, and no RSI indicators are strongly suggesting an entry. Even the 4 hour RSI came down from the middle, which suggests a continued decline. I would expect a much sharper indicator that the market is oversold on the 4 hr prior to a meaningful reversal.
Still, I can't help smack myself for not maintaining some risk as I had planned to do with XMR and ETC, which would have been 10+% gains.
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The hardest thing to do is keep your cool when the market blows up or down. On one hand FOMO or past misses gnaw away at you while on the other hand a failure to reduce risk creates a sense of paranoia that all of the "talk" of market catastrophe is imminent. Most of these commentators are right half the time which means you should stick with a strategy that works and not questions yourself too much when you make a mistake.ملاحظة
In the case of ETC I already realized I screwed up right after I sold off my entire position rather than just half... And my intention to "double dip" with XMR would have been filled if I had kept the order open rather than cancelling it during my nap.ملاحظة
At the bottom of this recent dip GDAX only touched $7665 while Kraken touched off $7621 USD and 6220 EUR. That would be a 1.225 USD/EUR conversion rate.
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