BTC/USD: Resistance and Pullback Probabilities 1W (Aug. 04)

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X Force Global Analysis:


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In this analysis, we analyze Bitcoin's weekly chart through the use of the envelope indicator, and Bitcoin's tendencies to test envelope support and resistance levels through breakouts and pullbacks.

Analysis

- To begin with, we look at the bullish rally that took place in 2017
- Despite the steep bullish trend, Bitcoin had phases of small corrections testing the envelope support
- Such corrections took place even during a parabolic move in the form of a pullback
- As the trend started shifting, and prices fell below the envelope indicator, we have seen the envelope indicator get tested
- Breakouts took place during the way down, testing the envelope resistance multiple times
- The same price movement had repeated during the recent bullish and bearish rallies
- Currently, we are trading way above the envelope indicator
- Despite the overall trend being bullish, a pullback to retest the envelope support would indicate a 15% correction from current levels

Market Sentiment:

Long short ratios are at 70 to 30, with significantly more long positions in the market. While this is a reflection of the bullish sentiment, based on contrarian theory, this could be a concerning factor, considering the fact that billions had been recently liquidated.

What We Believe

The rejection we have faced at 12k regions also substantiate the argument that a corrective move in the form of a pullback is highly probable considering Bitcoin's past price movements.

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