🔥 Bitcoin & Why I Don't Trust The CPI Pump

١٤ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

Yesterday we had a very bad CPI reading. The market dumped on the initial news, but during the US trading day the market recovered all of it's losses and more in a matter of hours.

I, and many other market participants, thought we would see further bearish price action. I didn't expect this massive move at all, but it's explainable in retrospect.

There are potentially a dozen reasons why yesterday happened the way it did, but in my opinion the number 1 reason was that too many traders were short already and no one wanted to sell further after a huge -4% candle. A classic short-squeeze.

I think that this bullish price action will not last. The macro economic outlook has only deteriorated further, leading to more interest rate hikes. This rally might keep on for a few more days, but in the end we're likely to dump further.

I'm not convinced until two things happen:
1. A break out through the top resistance of the bearish triangle (note the big reversal a couple of hours ago)
2. A daily candle close above 20.5k, we've been trading in a horizontal range for almost 2 months now and I'd like to see a break out before I start thinking bullish.

Do you believe the pump? Share your thoughts🙏🔥