Taking an in depth look at BTC.
First looking at the 1 day chart -
The more recent high at around 8450 allowed the price to square up that candle on the previous move down (purple dotted line, this can be more easily seen on lower timeframes). On this log chart, the price is still sitting below the important downtrend resistance from 20k, although it can be viewed as having broken past this on the linear chart. We are starting to move towards the Ichi cloud which has thinned out a substantial amount since the last time we tried to get through at 11700, providing an opening for a decent move upward. (Note the 8 hour cloud is currently acting as support).
Not shown on this chart - the MACD remains crossed positively but is lying quite flat right now, while at the peak the RSI had got too high and was showing hidden bearish divergence. Now we have retraced a little and the RSI has fallen to a reasonable level at 57 but certainly has room to move lower before the next rally.
On the 4 hour chart after having had a few parallel channels drawn for the most recent rally I decided it lent itself better to a pitchfork - the principle being that the price tends to come back to the median which is exactly what has happened so far. Other TA I have seen talks of the head and shoulders - yes it's there but so frequently with BTC I don't see these and the inverse versions complete, let alone to target, I don't really take that into consideration.
As for the day chart, the RSI has corrected well from the bearish divergence, now showing hidden bullish on the lows. At 33 approx. it still could fall lower, however it is now at the same level as at 6600 which is promising.
The MACD (not shown) is crossed downward so no bullish sign there yet, however the histogram is showing the same hidden bullish divergence as the RSI as well as a small amount of regular divergence on the last few candles. On my EMAs (7,77,231) the 7 had broken above the 231 however is struggling to stay there while the 77 remains further below. The next few days should see them meet and this will likely be the moment of truth as to whether the price gets the power and volume to move past that log downtrend resistance.
Finally, the bollinger bands have gone into a long squeeze (implying an upcoming break one way or the other!), they haven't come inside the Keltner Channels as yet, however on this timeframe we can see the break before that happens.
So what does this all say?
Unfortunately there is nothing which tells me with a high probability one direction or the other in the short or even mid term. There are two square-up candles of note - the next one above the one just met is around 8800 while there is still one below at around 7k, but sideways movement looks most likely until we get more confirmation of one direction or the other. Falling to 7600 and the 50% fib I think is pretty likely. Sorry I can't be more exciting or definitive!
First looking at the 1 day chart -
The more recent high at around 8450 allowed the price to square up that candle on the previous move down (purple dotted line, this can be more easily seen on lower timeframes). On this log chart, the price is still sitting below the important downtrend resistance from 20k, although it can be viewed as having broken past this on the linear chart. We are starting to move towards the Ichi cloud which has thinned out a substantial amount since the last time we tried to get through at 11700, providing an opening for a decent move upward. (Note the 8 hour cloud is currently acting as support).
Not shown on this chart - the MACD remains crossed positively but is lying quite flat right now, while at the peak the RSI had got too high and was showing hidden bearish divergence. Now we have retraced a little and the RSI has fallen to a reasonable level at 57 but certainly has room to move lower before the next rally.
On the 4 hour chart after having had a few parallel channels drawn for the most recent rally I decided it lent itself better to a pitchfork - the principle being that the price tends to come back to the median which is exactly what has happened so far. Other TA I have seen talks of the head and shoulders - yes it's there but so frequently with BTC I don't see these and the inverse versions complete, let alone to target, I don't really take that into consideration.
As for the day chart, the RSI has corrected well from the bearish divergence, now showing hidden bullish on the lows. At 33 approx. it still could fall lower, however it is now at the same level as at 6600 which is promising.
The MACD (not shown) is crossed downward so no bullish sign there yet, however the histogram is showing the same hidden bullish divergence as the RSI as well as a small amount of regular divergence on the last few candles. On my EMAs (7,77,231) the 7 had broken above the 231 however is struggling to stay there while the 77 remains further below. The next few days should see them meet and this will likely be the moment of truth as to whether the price gets the power and volume to move past that log downtrend resistance.
Finally, the bollinger bands have gone into a long squeeze (implying an upcoming break one way or the other!), they haven't come inside the Keltner Channels as yet, however on this timeframe we can see the break before that happens.
So what does this all say?
Unfortunately there is nothing which tells me with a high probability one direction or the other in the short or even mid term. There are two square-up candles of note - the next one above the one just met is around 8800 while there is still one below at around 7k, but sideways movement looks most likely until we get more confirmation of one direction or the other. Falling to 7600 and the 50% fib I think is pretty likely. Sorry I can't be more exciting or definitive!
تم فتح الصفقة:
Well that moved a little faster than expected! The price has jumped back to the first square up which can be seen on the 1 hour at around 8100, and exceeded it.
The next one on that timeframe is just under 8400. Look for a bullflag forming in the next few candles to see if we continue the movement.
The next one on that timeframe is just under 8400. Look for a bullflag forming in the next few candles to see if we continue the movement.
Come say hi @elisa_crypto on twitter!
