BTC - Rising Wedge is a sign of pending reversal....
تم تحديثه
BTC's Great Falling Wedge of 2018 is almost reaching its conclusion....what happens next? Tough call. We're currently in another Rising Wedge. The last one was from June-Aug and BTC attempted to break out of the Great Falling Wedge. I have to check again, but I think this was related to potential ETF approval rumors, which have fallen completely flat. Maybe a fourth times the charm, lol? BTC also seems to be losing steam as the intensity of the legs up over the past few months has been declining (see the angles listed in my chart), as well as volumes. The 50-period EMA is
This last leg up was preceded by a higher-low, so there is still hope that BTC will continue past this major resistance at $7400 (note: grey lines in my chart are mostly support/resistance lines using Volume Profile). The 50-period EMA also didn't have a lower-low with the last leg down. We could genuinely be approaching a reversal of the 2018 bear market.
I'm currently going neutral. I've sold off most of my altcoins in anticipation of some BTC turbulence in the coming days and have a low-leverage hedge in place to turn my BTC into synthetic cash. I almost called the last top but got stopped out right before things reversed (link below). I predicted a retest of major support and then a breakout. The intensity of this leg up though has me concerned. Not making that mistake again though, so I'm neutral (low-leverage short) instead of short (heavy-leverage short).
If prices come back down, I'm hoping for a bounce/re-test between $5,800-$6,400 and will buy in drips/drabs within that range, especially at our most recent low (a higher low).
If prices go up through $7,400, I'll buy in drips/drabs (with less conviction/leverage) if/when support is found and hoping for a move to 8k.
If I get left behind as BTC moons past 8k, no worries....I'm not going anywhere and will buy up post 8k.
Last prediction:
This last leg up was preceded by a higher-low, so there is still hope that BTC will continue past this major resistance at $7400 (note: grey lines in my chart are mostly support/resistance lines using Volume Profile). The 50-period EMA also didn't have a lower-low with the last leg down. We could genuinely be approaching a reversal of the 2018 bear market.
I'm currently going neutral. I've sold off most of my altcoins in anticipation of some BTC turbulence in the coming days and have a low-leverage hedge in place to turn my BTC into synthetic cash. I almost called the last top but got stopped out right before things reversed (link below). I predicted a retest of major support and then a breakout. The intensity of this leg up though has me concerned. Not making that mistake again though, so I'm neutral (low-leverage short) instead of short (heavy-leverage short).
If prices come back down, I'm hoping for a bounce/re-test between $5,800-$6,400 and will buy in drips/drabs within that range, especially at our most recent low (a higher low).
If prices go up through $7,400, I'll buy in drips/drabs (with less conviction/leverage) if/when support is found and hoping for a move to 8k.
If I get left behind as BTC moons past 8k, no worries....I'm not going anywhere and will buy up post 8k.
Last prediction:
تعليق
Price still needs to break through $6,800 but the pullback was sweet. Hopefully we get down to the $6,400 range so I can start buying between that and $5,800 (note: by "buying" I mean exiting my hedged position). Given there's still decent risk of a downward move, I'm keeping my 40-45% USD position untouched until we get confirmation of reversal.finvids.com/Content/Images/ChartPattern/Wedges/Declining-Wedge-Breakout-Direction.jpg
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