Bitcoin Buy: WAITING For Real Support Levels Mid 13K Area.

١٥ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٠

Bitcoin finds resistance in the low 16Ks, followed by selling activity. We are not surprised, we have been very careful not to get sucked into the hype and low probability buy signals of recent weeks. In fact we have been talking about staying away from any new swing trades in Bitcoin since the mid 15K area was tested weeks ago (see my previous articles on here).

As of right now, there is still no reason to take any longs. The nearest significant support level continues to be in the mid 13Ks to low 14Ks. Our plan requires 3 things to unfold before we can assume any risk: 1st we need to reach an predetermined level (14,250 to 13,600), 2nd we need price action to produce a clear setup (chart pattern, candle stick pattern, etc.) and 3rd we need confirmation. Once we can measure risk and determine a favorable probability, we are prompted to share our idea and put on a new swing trade. Many traders do not have the patience or emotional restrain required to sit through such a slow process. What about going short? We don't short Bitcoin, which has been our policy since the beginning (we are consistent like our results).

The broader trend is still bullish and it is within reason to see a move to 20K in the coming months, at least from a technical perspective. That means in such a context, the best opportunities will be to buy into weakness but in a structured way, not in a reactive way or randomly.

There is more to timing markets than reading a chart (especially one polluted with lots of lines and oscillators). Probability is something you cannot see, something that an oscillator will not take into account, or something a professional marketer will focus on (less action = less customers). Our job as a market timer is to assign probabilities to market conditions in order to better identify opportunities that are likely to play out in our favor. ALL markets are HIGHLY RANDOM which means these opportunities will be infrequent.

If you are attempting to capture broader market moves in Bitcoin (swing trades), and you are putting on more than 1 or 2 trades per week, then you are over trading and your long term results will surely reflect that. I get questions all the time: how many trades do you take for Bitcoin? in October we only had 2 which you can read about in my previous articles. 15 days into November, we have had NONE, because we continue to follow our well defined swing trade strategy and WAIT for a high probability setup.

Thank you for taking the time to read my article, I hope you found it insightful.