Bitcoin: It's Over

٢٤ يونيو

According to Ichimoku Rules, which have proven to be a highly accurate method of determining the state of the trend of Bitcoin, the bullish trend which began in October 2023 has conclusively ended.

When both Price and Momentum (the Chikou) cross over to the same side of the cloud then the trend is either confirmed Bullish or Bearish. The prior bullish trend began in October 2023 with the first rumors of the ETF:


Price then pulled during the "sell the news" phase of the actual ETF launch in January 2024. However, Momentum did NOT get on the bearish side of the cloud and thus the bullish trend was able to continue:


More recently following the new All Time High price did a pullback in May in which the bullish trend survived by once again keeping Momentum from going bearish:


What followed was an attempt at a higher high which failed. This was quite deadly for both the trend and the sentiment of Bitcoin which was needed to fuel a higher price.

Why this type of analysis and position management is important has played out in every example of Bitcoin's dramatic falls throughout its history. The most recent disastrous bear trend would have been largely mitigated by exiting in December 2021 around 50k, strict rule following would trigger a trade in March 2022 which would be exited in April, and then one could re-enter in January 2024 at around 19k:


The key takeaway is that one could have bought DOUBLE or more as many Bitcoin for the same capital in January 2023 than they would have had just by HODLing all the way down through 2022.

Later I will work on and post as a link a video idea that details this strategy throughout Bitcoin's history. This will be a rehash of the same exact strategy as I presented it years ago. The results are still clear: using Ichimoku on the Daily to gauge the Bitcoin trend is an incredibly effective tool in Bitcoin position management. Timing the market does beat Time In The Market.