BTC Price analysis : We are still bearish
Today, I will share long time view about BTC .
It is my plan for next few months.
- 2017 - 2018 / 2021 - 2022
First, I divided the price range from 2017 - 2018 and thereafter to the high in 2021 into blue and green boxes, respectively.
We can think of it as a large division of the price range in which BTC moves in each cycle (I will refer to the bull market that returns to the cycle of about 4 years as one cycle).
For Bitcoin's price decline to be accepted as a concept of "Correction", we believe that the decline in price must not continue to the price range of the previous cycle.
So, unless Bitcoin continues to gain strength below the $19,000 cycle price of the 2017 - 2018 cycle if it declines further, we would leave the possibility that there will be no future cycle, but we believe it is very unlikely at the moment.
For the same reason as above, the price range is marked in a box, and it is not meaningful at this time, so it is good to pass it.
- RSI
Bitcoin has recently risen to $48,000. There was a lot of public opinion that is bull market.
As the RSI indicator maintains a downtrend, I will view it as a bear market until this downtrend is broken.
I don't think it's too late to buy after the downtrend is broken.
- Bearish Cycle
Some say that looking at historical charts makes no sense at all, but I think the period and price range converge similarly, even though the price movement patterns are different.
Since the previous 2017 high, the decline has continued at 51 weekly peaks, around 51 weeks, and effectively one year. Again, if the 51 main peaks take a downward trend after the peak, I think the end of the down cycle will be around the end of October or November of this year.
- About Bottom
BTC's correction has so far shown a price drop of around 70% to 80%.
As the 200-week moving average touch of the price on the main peak was close to the trough in many cases, I think that the point where the 200-week moving average of -70% + 200-day moving average from the high meets will be close to the bottom this time as well.
I've marked the bottom spot I'm thinking of with a finger on the chart.
- Total View
Overall, the downward trend will be maintained, and even if the price does not fall in the same pattern as in 2017 - 2018, I think the period and extent of the decline will be similar.
Therefore, personally, I see the spot for the overall trend reversal of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market to be $19,000, where the 200-week moving average, the peak of the 2017-2018 cycle, meets, and in view of the previous flow, it will be in late October to early November 2022. Looking forward to reaching that price.
- Next Cycle
If the ideal flow is followed and a long-term buy is successful on the spot, there is a high possibility that a new cycle such as a purple box will open after that.
Since the present is too far in the future, I simply expressed it based on an increase of about 250% to 300% from the peak of the 2021 - 2022 cycle.
It is my plan for next few months.
- 2017 - 2018 / 2021 - 2022
First, I divided the price range from 2017 - 2018 and thereafter to the high in 2021 into blue and green boxes, respectively.
We can think of it as a large division of the price range in which BTC moves in each cycle (I will refer to the bull market that returns to the cycle of about 4 years as one cycle).
For Bitcoin's price decline to be accepted as a concept of "Correction", we believe that the decline in price must not continue to the price range of the previous cycle.
So, unless Bitcoin continues to gain strength below the $19,000 cycle price of the 2017 - 2018 cycle if it declines further, we would leave the possibility that there will be no future cycle, but we believe it is very unlikely at the moment.
For the same reason as above, the price range is marked in a box, and it is not meaningful at this time, so it is good to pass it.
- RSI
Bitcoin has recently risen to $48,000. There was a lot of public opinion that is bull market.
As the RSI indicator maintains a downtrend, I will view it as a bear market until this downtrend is broken.
I don't think it's too late to buy after the downtrend is broken.
- Bearish Cycle
Some say that looking at historical charts makes no sense at all, but I think the period and price range converge similarly, even though the price movement patterns are different.
Since the previous 2017 high, the decline has continued at 51 weekly peaks, around 51 weeks, and effectively one year. Again, if the 51 main peaks take a downward trend after the peak, I think the end of the down cycle will be around the end of October or November of this year.
- About Bottom
BTC's correction has so far shown a price drop of around 70% to 80%.
As the 200-week moving average touch of the price on the main peak was close to the trough in many cases, I think that the point where the 200-week moving average of -70% + 200-day moving average from the high meets will be close to the bottom this time as well.
I've marked the bottom spot I'm thinking of with a finger on the chart.
- Total View
Overall, the downward trend will be maintained, and even if the price does not fall in the same pattern as in 2017 - 2018, I think the period and extent of the decline will be similar.
Therefore, personally, I see the spot for the overall trend reversal of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market to be $19,000, where the 200-week moving average, the peak of the 2017-2018 cycle, meets, and in view of the previous flow, it will be in late October to early November 2022. Looking forward to reaching that price.
- Next Cycle
If the ideal flow is followed and a long-term buy is successful on the spot, there is a high possibility that a new cycle such as a purple box will open after that.
Since the present is too far in the future, I simply expressed it based on an increase of about 250% to 300% from the peak of the 2021 - 2022 cycle.
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