Bitcoin 50 week MA at Critical Level
First chart we are looking at is the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, which is looking decent for the first time in a while.
Yesterday we were in the valley around the $7,300 when price started getting a little bullish momentum. Around midnight EST price began to move higher from about $7,362 to about $7,600 for a move of $236, where it was pushed back by the bears.
For the remainder of today price has been in another $100 range between $7,600 and $7,500 where it decides to m make it’s next move.
The nice thing today is that the light blue 50 hour moving average has now crossed up above the 200 hour moving average around 6 am EST this morning. This two levels will inevitably provide support when they are revisited either later today or tomorrow.
Right now the 50 hour MA is sitting around the $7,465 and the 200 hour MA $7,417 and will be a key level to hold over the few hours to determine if price will continue to move higher overnight and tomorrow.
I have also drawn a new orange rising wedge over the past few days here, these patterns typically break to the downside, but when and if it does we will have to see how much volume and resistance the bulls give back.
I also have adjusted the Fibonacci retracement line again to the high of today to see where that could put price and it’s interesting because the dark blue up trending support line runs right through the golden pocket at the .618 and .65 Fib levels. The midpoint in that range would be around $7,242 and decent for a bounce.
The indicators are also looking pretty bearish here. The RSI, MACD and CCI all have lower highs that I have marked on the charts with a dark green line from peak to peak and the price chart has a series of higher highs over the same time frame. This is strong reversal bearish divergence.
Price could certainly head higher on a break back above $7,600 here, however it appears much more probably we get another pullback of some sort with the indicators still quite high.
I have zoomed all the way out to the weekly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart on the next one below and there are some pretty interesting trends.
First look at how the volume has come down sharply over the last several months since the February 5th low of $6,000. The lowest volume since last week’s bar was July 3rd last year.
That is almost 11 months ago and although that isn’t an indication that price could move significantly very soon, I do believe it means the market is reaching a point of indifference that than portends to much higher moves in price like we had seen at the end of last year.
Additionally I am seeing how the 50 week moving average is pushing up through where price is right now, and it currently resides around $7,729. Price has not closed below the 50 week since October 2015 and that was when it was pushing to upside. When price was pushing to the downside it was all the way back in August of 2014 and fell another 70% before recovering.
This is actually encouraging to me, because with all the attention this market has gathered and infrastructure being put in place, I doubt this will continue to fall. In fact, price was supported by this 50 week MA level back in April, so I wouldn’t be surprised if price bounced back right to the MA level by the end of the week.
One other thing to note, is that there is strong bullish divergence on the RSI, which I have marked with the blue line. MACD is also heading into negative territory for right now, for the first time since October 2015 as well, so once again that 50 week MA is very important to keep and eye on. More on vanddar.com
Yesterday we were in the valley around the $7,300 when price started getting a little bullish momentum. Around midnight EST price began to move higher from about $7,362 to about $7,600 for a move of $236, where it was pushed back by the bears.
For the remainder of today price has been in another $100 range between $7,600 and $7,500 where it decides to m make it’s next move.
The nice thing today is that the light blue 50 hour moving average has now crossed up above the 200 hour moving average around 6 am EST this morning. This two levels will inevitably provide support when they are revisited either later today or tomorrow.
Right now the 50 hour MA is sitting around the $7,465 and the 200 hour MA $7,417 and will be a key level to hold over the few hours to determine if price will continue to move higher overnight and tomorrow.
I have also drawn a new orange rising wedge over the past few days here, these patterns typically break to the downside, but when and if it does we will have to see how much volume and resistance the bulls give back.
I also have adjusted the Fibonacci retracement line again to the high of today to see where that could put price and it’s interesting because the dark blue up trending support line runs right through the golden pocket at the .618 and .65 Fib levels. The midpoint in that range would be around $7,242 and decent for a bounce.
The indicators are also looking pretty bearish here. The RSI, MACD and CCI all have lower highs that I have marked on the charts with a dark green line from peak to peak and the price chart has a series of higher highs over the same time frame. This is strong reversal bearish divergence.
Price could certainly head higher on a break back above $7,600 here, however it appears much more probably we get another pullback of some sort with the indicators still quite high.
I have zoomed all the way out to the weekly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart on the next one below and there are some pretty interesting trends.
First look at how the volume has come down sharply over the last several months since the February 5th low of $6,000. The lowest volume since last week’s bar was July 3rd last year.
That is almost 11 months ago and although that isn’t an indication that price could move significantly very soon, I do believe it means the market is reaching a point of indifference that than portends to much higher moves in price like we had seen at the end of last year.
Additionally I am seeing how the 50 week moving average is pushing up through where price is right now, and it currently resides around $7,729. Price has not closed below the 50 week since October 2015 and that was when it was pushing to upside. When price was pushing to the downside it was all the way back in August of 2014 and fell another 70% before recovering.
This is actually encouraging to me, because with all the attention this market has gathered and infrastructure being put in place, I doubt this will continue to fall. In fact, price was supported by this 50 week MA level back in April, so I wouldn’t be surprised if price bounced back right to the MA level by the end of the week.
One other thing to note, is that there is strong bullish divergence on the RSI, which I have marked with the blue line. MACD is also heading into negative territory for right now, for the first time since October 2015 as well, so once again that 50 week MA is very important to keep and eye on. More on vanddar.com
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