Bitcoin - One Step Forward, Two Steps Back
تم تحديثه
As we anticipate the bull market returning, we are quickly put back in our place by the bears. Further declines are more daunting than ever at this stage, there is a lot of uncertainty in cryptocurrency right now.
I'd like to present a simplistic piece of analysis on bitcoin, I'm sure the novice technical analyst will be able to benefit from this post. Today I'm on the weekly chart using a logarithmic scale which displays prices based on percentage increase or decrease.
I've based my analysis off several of my previous ideas, I've done a ton of research on bitcoin from a technical aspect and measured every individual cycle from minor, intermediate and major timeframes. This can be found in my previous idea "Bitcoin - Cyclical Measurements" and "Bitcoin - What's Next?"
I do appreciate constructive comments, share your own analysis whether that be technical or fundamental.
Let's dive into today's analysis. Straight off the bat we can see throughout the first major cycle the overall increase was roughly 52,000% (Not mentioned on the chart, this is highlighted in other analysis mentioned above) and the decrease was 87% which lasted 413 days.
This was broken up by two main intermediate cycles measuring a decline of 81% and 82%.
In the current market cycle, the increase measured at 10,000% or 13,000% (depending on which low you are measuring from in 2015) and the decrease still stands at an overall 70% from $20,000 to $5,900. Price is currently trading above this level at $6,460 which is my primary concern, the daily support trendline has been lost and further downside is likely.
Taking a look at the daily chart below the expected overall decline is 80% based upon the weekly support trendline and key daily zone.
At this point in time, a recovery is more than possible. I will be focusing on the 1h, 4h and daily timeframes to predict where price is likely to move next.
If price breaks the low at $5,900 we will see further downside.
On the 12h chart below I have highlighted the structure I will be focusing on to capitalise on the drop, this is just below 5k.
Safe trading everyone!
I'd like to present a simplistic piece of analysis on bitcoin, I'm sure the novice technical analyst will be able to benefit from this post. Today I'm on the weekly chart using a logarithmic scale which displays prices based on percentage increase or decrease.
I've based my analysis off several of my previous ideas, I've done a ton of research on bitcoin from a technical aspect and measured every individual cycle from minor, intermediate and major timeframes. This can be found in my previous idea "Bitcoin - Cyclical Measurements" and "Bitcoin - What's Next?"
I do appreciate constructive comments, share your own analysis whether that be technical or fundamental.
Let's dive into today's analysis. Straight off the bat we can see throughout the first major cycle the overall increase was roughly 52,000% (Not mentioned on the chart, this is highlighted in other analysis mentioned above) and the decrease was 87% which lasted 413 days.
This was broken up by two main intermediate cycles measuring a decline of 81% and 82%.
In the current market cycle, the increase measured at 10,000% or 13,000% (depending on which low you are measuring from in 2015) and the decrease still stands at an overall 70% from $20,000 to $5,900. Price is currently trading above this level at $6,460 which is my primary concern, the daily support trendline has been lost and further downside is likely.
Taking a look at the daily chart below the expected overall decline is 80% based upon the weekly support trendline and key daily zone.
At this point in time, a recovery is more than possible. I will be focusing on the 1h, 4h and daily timeframes to predict where price is likely to move next.
If price breaks the low at $5,900 we will see further downside.
On the 12h chart below I have highlighted the structure I will be focusing on to capitalise on the drop, this is just below 5k.
Safe trading everyone!
ملاحظة
Quick update on the 1h chart on what I see happening with bitcoin.Price is still respecting the descending, even though we experienced a break below near $6,000.
Paying attention to minor support at the moment, expecting another move up during the week.
Price completed the 1 to 1 measured move on the 1h chart, confirmed the 2.24 projection before the reversal... The first TP of the move aligns with the descending channel resistance, expecting a short-term decline followed by a move towards $7,000 this week.
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