9/16 S&P 500 on the Rise: Awaiting Wednesday's Rate Decision

قبل ٤ أيامOverview:
The SP500 closed higher, challenging its all-time high for the third time this month. At least it's not declining like it typically does in other Septembers. However, the QQQ is stalling, showing a lower high but also forming a higher low. Both the SP500 and QQQ have seen diminishing volume over the last three days as everyone awaits the Fed’s rate cut decision on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, BlackRock clients made a modest purchase of $15.8 million worth of BTCUSD, ending an 11-day stretch of no activity. Considering their average BTC purchase is $122 million, this can be rounded off to negligible. Total BTC flow across all ETFs was $12 million, far below the average of $101 million.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey revealed a growing general business conditions index, which rose by sixteen points to 11.5, turning positive for the first time in 2024. This signals increasing new orders and shipments, while delivery times and supply availability remained steady, and inventories leveled off. This is not ideal for those hoping for a two-basis-point rate cut.

Technical Analysis:
W: Holding strong at the 58.4k weekly level, which is the point of control for July, August, and half of September. This is a very significant support level.
D: Holding the Bollinger Band moving average (BB MA), which, combined with the weekly point of control (POC), is crucial to maintain the short-term bullish trend.
4h & 1h: Both timeframes are holding the weekly level firmly.

Alts Relative to BTC:
No significant divergence was observed over the weekend or Monday. Previous divergence can be seen when BTC broke the 58.4k weekly level on September 13th. However, both ETHUSD and SOLUSD remain below levels they had broken on September 9th.

Bull Case:
If the weekly level holds, the price could bounce off support on Tuesday and rally higher in anticipation of lower interest rates.

Bear Case:
A continued lack of appetite for risky assets may lead to further sell-offs.

Fear and Greed Index:
Currently at 34.15. While BTC holds its critical weekly price level, the Fear and Greed Index continues to decline, creating a divergence.

Prediction:
Not enough clear signals for a definite prediction.
Opportunities:
Any technical analysis signals may be invalidated by Wednesday’s price action.
Mistakes:
FTMUSDT surged, breaking through its resistance and gaining 6.36%, while most other altcoins remained flat.