Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (4th October 2021)
تم تحديثه
Price action of BTCUSD over the weekend was mostly sideways expect for shortlived spike on a Sunday. Breakout above resistance (that lies slightly below 49 000 USD) occured within less than ten minutes and resulted in high of 49 225.55 USD. Then price retraced back to its previous level. We are currently neutral on BTCUSD while we see interesting setup forming. We think if price manages to hold above horizontal line (between green and red text) depicted on main graph then it is very bullish for BTCUSD and price is likely to rise further towards resistance near 53 000 USD. However, if this price level fails to support price then breakdown will follow and price will retest 40 000 USD. We think investors should be cautious and prepare for more volatility in BTCUSD in the coming days.
Below is depiction of breakout above resistance that lies slightly below 49 000 USD.
Below is depiction of price retracement after breakout.
We would like to note that recent jump in price on 1st October 2021 happened as response to Jay Powell's answer on question whether FED plans to ban cryptocurrencies similarly like China did (which FED does not want to do according to Jay Powell). This was abruptly followed with reversal of bearish trend in technicals. We normally disregard news as noise but Jay Powell's remarks did have impact on technicals which reversed from bearish to bullish very quickly thereafter. Thus we have two alternative scenarios for BTCUSD:
1. This recent jump in price followed with breakout above resistance + joined with reversal in technicals (from bearish to bullish) is beginning of a new uptrend.
or
2. Recent reversal is just a bull trap which will be followed by mentioned breakdown in price.
Technical analysis
MACD is bullish on daily timeframe. We will observe it closely this week and we will look for crossover into bullish zone which would further bolster bullish case for BTCUSD. Stochastic and RSI are also bullish on daily timeframe. ADX keeps declining which suggest that trend is weakening and thus becoming neutral. Overall technicals are bullish at the moment.
BTC1! (Bitcoin continuous futures)
Price retraced back into the gap zone observable in futures market. This zone represents another form of setup. Signal comes once breakout above or below this area occurs.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Below is depiction of breakout above resistance that lies slightly below 49 000 USD.
Below is depiction of price retracement after breakout.
We would like to note that recent jump in price on 1st October 2021 happened as response to Jay Powell's answer on question whether FED plans to ban cryptocurrencies similarly like China did (which FED does not want to do according to Jay Powell). This was abruptly followed with reversal of bearish trend in technicals. We normally disregard news as noise but Jay Powell's remarks did have impact on technicals which reversed from bearish to bullish very quickly thereafter. Thus we have two alternative scenarios for BTCUSD:
1. This recent jump in price followed with breakout above resistance + joined with reversal in technicals (from bearish to bullish) is beginning of a new uptrend.
or
2. Recent reversal is just a bull trap which will be followed by mentioned breakdown in price.
Technical analysis
MACD is bullish on daily timeframe. We will observe it closely this week and we will look for crossover into bullish zone which would further bolster bullish case for BTCUSD. Stochastic and RSI are also bullish on daily timeframe. ADX keeps declining which suggest that trend is weakening and thus becoming neutral. Overall technicals are bullish at the moment.
BTC1! (Bitcoin continuous futures)
Price retraced back into the gap zone observable in futures market. This zone represents another form of setup. Signal comes once breakout above or below this area occurs.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
تم فتح الصفقة
Below is depiction of divergence between price and RSI on hourly graph of BTCUSD:Investors should be cautious. It seems as if BTCUSD is losing steam. We are still sceptical of this move up and we are starting to incline from neutral stance to bearish stance.
تم فتح الصفقة
BTCUSD surprised us with its abrupt move up. Since previous peak near 53 000 USD was taken out today we think it is likely that price will continue its rise even further. Technical analysis on daily time frame supports this thesis at the moment, however, RSI nears overbought condition which often coincides with a peak in price. ADX continues to decline which suggests that trend is becoming neutral. We are getting notion that BTCUSD will move in certain range similarly like gold has been moving within last four months.تم فتح الصفقة
Idea was updated today in the following post:
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