Bitcoin Daily Update (day 315)

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*Using Monthly Chart*

Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA

Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Potential falling wedge
Horizontals: Monthly close at $3,419 is key area. Watch for it to become resistance based on February’s open
Trendline: Bear trend starting on
Parabolic SAR: $12,895 (lol)
Futures Curve: Backwardation but rapidly decreasing spread. Now 2% spread.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks very bullish
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Red 7
Ichimoku Cloud: C Clamp with Tenkan-Sen at $5,800
Relative Strength Index: Has created a new all time low on Bitstamp
Price Action: 24h: -1.5% | 2w: -5.6% | 1m: -9.9%
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band is at $1,000 which is curiously in line with hyperwave’s target for the bottom.
Stochastic Oscillator: Monthly buy called the last bottom, and it is posturing for buy signal now.

Summary: This market is at a very interesting spot in my opinion. I would be feeling very bullish if it wasn’t for the spread in the backwardation curve contracting. That has me on my toes watching for a potential short entry.

However I would strongly prefer to long from here. The market seems primed to make a big bounce. Alts are poised, BTC is oversold at support. The monthly Ichimoku Cloud confirms that, with the large C Clamp. The Tekan-Sen at $5,800 is right where my target is if we can close above $4,350. Furthermore there is a strong argument for a falling wedge on the higher TF's which a target that is too high to even think about.

On the other hand there are a few things on the monthly chart that make it look like like we are closer to a bottom than it feels like. The RSI has created a new all time low on Bitstamp. The Stochastic Oscillator is posturing for a buy and it called the last bottom. That provides strong confirmation to my suspicion that breaking down from here would cause the capitulation needed to find a bottom.

While it is currently a better setup for longs, the prospect of finding a bottom sooner is a more attractive long term prospect.