Short: 5800 to 5000 target area and here is my rationale
تم تحديثه
So I have placed a stake in the ground. After sitting on FIAT and Tether (with the exception of a few beer money trades which marked a few breakout opportunities but failed) I'm going to target this area for a swing. And I have a (wild) rationale!
1. My analysis of Money Flow Index - see related Idea helped me identify whether the uptrend line may be broken pretty much to the day - this is not a boast, rather I recommend looking at MFI and some of my findings to help identify swing points. It' highlights failing double tops for instance (my guess is that the second run is the bulls buying and selling off to short the market and recover any failed trades).
2. My 50% observation. I did some math / (questionable) analysis on depth of drops as this bubble pops - from each high to 'projected' low the moves initially hit 50% (46-50). Some of these drops did not reach their desired 50% targets once they hit the uptrend and bullish support. The target since the last high early April (10k) is around $5,800 down to $5,000 - watching 5,800 & 5113 particularly.
3. Insider Trading: A number of ICOs have delayed the release of their tokens until late in June. These ICOs have influential trading consultancy folk and have offered no explanation for the delays. We've still got 12+ days to go before any major bounce according to past form. Coincidence that they are all delaying and releasing tokens at this time? Probably just a conspiracy theory ;)
4. Futures: CME is 29th June (unconfirmed as yet).
5. It's a manipulation but support levels will eventually take hold. It can't go straight down forever - If it does go lower (4800) I'd expect some upward momentum first.
Will I work to this religiously? baaaa.. it's a large target range but probably not - 6500 might hold on 3rd touch and go ballistic, I'll be playing the 6000 level, above and below if necessary - plenty of trading opportunities lie ahead. None of the above offer a silver bullet to identifying the bottom however they act as a collective of data points (qualitative and quantitative) to at least continue to give me a bearing.
Pinch of Salt, Hard Forky
1. My analysis of Money Flow Index - see related Idea helped me identify whether the uptrend line may be broken pretty much to the day - this is not a boast, rather I recommend looking at MFI and some of my findings to help identify swing points. It' highlights failing double tops for instance (my guess is that the second run is the bulls buying and selling off to short the market and recover any failed trades).
2. My 50% observation. I did some math / (questionable) analysis on depth of drops as this bubble pops - from each high to 'projected' low the moves initially hit 50% (46-50). Some of these drops did not reach their desired 50% targets once they hit the uptrend and bullish support. The target since the last high early April (10k) is around $5,800 down to $5,000 - watching 5,800 & 5113 particularly.
3. Insider Trading: A number of ICOs have delayed the release of their tokens until late in June. These ICOs have influential trading consultancy folk and have offered no explanation for the delays. We've still got 12+ days to go before any major bounce according to past form. Coincidence that they are all delaying and releasing tokens at this time? Probably just a conspiracy theory ;)
4. Futures: CME is 29th June (unconfirmed as yet).
5. It's a manipulation but support levels will eventually take hold. It can't go straight down forever - If it does go lower (4800) I'd expect some upward momentum first.
Will I work to this religiously? baaaa.. it's a large target range but probably not - 6500 might hold on 3rd touch and go ballistic, I'll be playing the 6000 level, above and below if necessary - plenty of trading opportunities lie ahead. None of the above offer a silver bullet to identifying the bottom however they act as a collective of data points (qualitative and quantitative) to at least continue to give me a bearing.
Pinch of Salt, Hard Forky
ملاحظة
Weak buy action and today's dump keeps this idea valid.Everyone is sitting on the sidelines
ملاحظة
Moving into target areaملاحظة
Target hit but bounce is unconvincing with big buy walls on BNB and BTC holding price back .
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