Does bitcoin need the rest of the world?
From the perspective of a metals bull, Ive contemplated this myself a lot about metals.
If gold and silver do extremely well and become extremely valuable, wont I need an exit or a trading partner.
Who will pay me for my metals when silver goes moon?
Dont I need a financialized world with easy money to for my silver "number go up"?
See, I wonder this about bitcoin too. Dont metal bugs and bitcoin bulls have the same conundrums?
If the dollar fails, wont that mean that the financialized system fails and we could be a in a more commodity money economy? A more trustless trading world is the same as a barter economy. Where trade isnt based on credit or future payment, but on what you have on hand of value or else no trade kind of world.
The best feature of the stock market and bond market, is that they are tools for valuation through time, and reward potential future value. It allows for 30 years of future payments to be valued and priced today. Or the other way, you get big expenses financed over many years because of liquidity and investor funding. No money down loans are features of this liquid happy financialized system. Money shortages and chaos are symptoms of financial panics.
The point is that even as alternative asset class investors, bitcoiners and metal holders should really be rooting for a healthy financial system, not the failure. You cant be wealthy on an island by yourself. Money isnt real, but it represents relationships. A thriving system will reward you with higher multiples for your assets and then allow you to trade for real tangible wealth produced cheaply by others.
All that being said, 2023 still has a lot of issues to work through.
-For one, the valuation of the market is historically too high for the growth thats likely to result.
20 PEs are not normal or cheap. Add loss of purchasing power because of higher costs, and everyone needs more returns for the risk.
-Credit markets are tightening and finance companies are preparing from high losses this year. Credit card and auto loan companies are discussing in their calls how 2022 loans performing badly and they are expecting higher losses through 2023 and some in 2024 early.
-FX dollars and yen are being used in the global funding markets. Since 2008 financial crisis, there has been a shift in banking where collateralized funding has become a bigger market instead of the libor based "trust" markets. Banks are still risk averse. So collateralized funding from the "shadow banks" has become a bigger player. These collateralized lenders hedge out much of the risk using currency swaps as part of their funding. USA, Japan, and London are the main sources of funding, which are all connected to dollar as a neutral currency vehicle.
-Stocks represent peoples savings and the multiple on future growth. With rising job losses and all the Recession warnings, the investor population could tighten their belts and save less. 401k inflows require a healthy job market supporting high stock multiples and the growth combined is how we got our big market valuations.
1 bitcoin is always 1 bitcoin. 1 ounce of a silver is always 1 ounce.
But the dollars I can get depends on how the rest of the world is doing.
Good luck everyone.
If gold and silver do extremely well and become extremely valuable, wont I need an exit or a trading partner.
Who will pay me for my metals when silver goes moon?
Dont I need a financialized world with easy money to for my silver "number go up"?
See, I wonder this about bitcoin too. Dont metal bugs and bitcoin bulls have the same conundrums?
If the dollar fails, wont that mean that the financialized system fails and we could be a in a more commodity money economy? A more trustless trading world is the same as a barter economy. Where trade isnt based on credit or future payment, but on what you have on hand of value or else no trade kind of world.
The best feature of the stock market and bond market, is that they are tools for valuation through time, and reward potential future value. It allows for 30 years of future payments to be valued and priced today. Or the other way, you get big expenses financed over many years because of liquidity and investor funding. No money down loans are features of this liquid happy financialized system. Money shortages and chaos are symptoms of financial panics.
The point is that even as alternative asset class investors, bitcoiners and metal holders should really be rooting for a healthy financial system, not the failure. You cant be wealthy on an island by yourself. Money isnt real, but it represents relationships. A thriving system will reward you with higher multiples for your assets and then allow you to trade for real tangible wealth produced cheaply by others.
All that being said, 2023 still has a lot of issues to work through.
-For one, the valuation of the market is historically too high for the growth thats likely to result.
20 PEs are not normal or cheap. Add loss of purchasing power because of higher costs, and everyone needs more returns for the risk.
-Credit markets are tightening and finance companies are preparing from high losses this year. Credit card and auto loan companies are discussing in their calls how 2022 loans performing badly and they are expecting higher losses through 2023 and some in 2024 early.
-FX dollars and yen are being used in the global funding markets. Since 2008 financial crisis, there has been a shift in banking where collateralized funding has become a bigger market instead of the libor based "trust" markets. Banks are still risk averse. So collateralized funding from the "shadow banks" has become a bigger player. These collateralized lenders hedge out much of the risk using currency swaps as part of their funding. USA, Japan, and London are the main sources of funding, which are all connected to dollar as a neutral currency vehicle.
-Stocks represent peoples savings and the multiple on future growth. With rising job losses and all the Recession warnings, the investor population could tighten their belts and save less. 401k inflows require a healthy job market supporting high stock multiples and the growth combined is how we got our big market valuations.
1 bitcoin is always 1 bitcoin. 1 ounce of a silver is always 1 ounce.
But the dollars I can get depends on how the rest of the world is doing.
Good luck everyone.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.