👋Is the shake out over? I see more weak longs to take out🎯
There are two possible scenario that will play out next in Bitcoin:
Since the March low the price has gone up 223% and the correction so far has been 23%
First I’ll talk about the chart, and then I’ll talk about the macro factors in play.
We hit the $9,990 support level which was no surprise as it’s listed as support on every BTC chart and the 0.786 on FIB, so I can understand why people think the bottom is in, but I don’t think it’s as simple as yet.
Price moved higher on bearish divergence for 15 days, which tells me there are a lot of weak longs that need to be shaken out.
In past Bitcoin corrections, the bottom is usually in when RSI goes below 30, we were overbought at 87 for some time before the rally ended, so there should be a healthy expectation that we are become oversold before the corrective move is complete.
Prices to watch out for are $9,100 and $8,000< is where you want to back up the truck.
We can move up from here and make new highs, but other than from a purely technical point of view, i.e we hit FIB and support therefore moon.
Now let’s talk about the macro factors.
Like it or not, when stonks go down so does BTC, and the NASDAQ/S&P appear to be in a correction that is not yet over, they just did a huge move on bad fundamentals, who knows how low it can go?
A further 5-10% drop in stonk will be a 10-20% drop in BTC which is around $8,200~
Gold is also correcting, a drop here will lead to a drop in BTC.
Talks about more stimulus is being delayed.
There are very few bull cases for Bitcoin that haven't been priced in, and is why I have weighted scenario B as 70%.
Once you know the two possible scenarios, you can then start making your plan.
What do you see happening next?
- Scenario A – the low is in and it carries on with its bull run (30%)
- Scenario B – it continues to correct lower (70%)
Since the March low the price has gone up 223% and the correction so far has been 23%
First I’ll talk about the chart, and then I’ll talk about the macro factors in play.
We hit the $9,990 support level which was no surprise as it’s listed as support on every BTC chart and the 0.786 on FIB, so I can understand why people think the bottom is in, but I don’t think it’s as simple as yet.
Price moved higher on bearish divergence for 15 days, which tells me there are a lot of weak longs that need to be shaken out.
In past Bitcoin corrections, the bottom is usually in when RSI goes below 30, we were overbought at 87 for some time before the rally ended, so there should be a healthy expectation that we are become oversold before the corrective move is complete.
Prices to watch out for are $9,100 and $8,000< is where you want to back up the truck.
We can move up from here and make new highs, but other than from a purely technical point of view, i.e we hit FIB and support therefore moon.
Now let’s talk about the macro factors.
Like it or not, when stonks go down so does BTC, and the NASDAQ/S&P appear to be in a correction that is not yet over, they just did a huge move on bad fundamentals, who knows how low it can go?
A further 5-10% drop in stonk will be a 10-20% drop in BTC which is around $8,200~
Gold is also correcting, a drop here will lead to a drop in BTC.
Talks about more stimulus is being delayed.
There are very few bull cases for Bitcoin that haven't been priced in, and is why I have weighted scenario B as 70%.
Once you know the two possible scenarios, you can then start making your plan.
What do you see happening next?
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