BTCUSD - current imbalance test
Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
See previous analysis here:
Master Key for zones
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 [using the monthly]. - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Monthly Imbalances
Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high.
Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone [see weekly chart].
The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high.
The probability of these occur where price breaks using the fibonacci rules as a second strategy.
Here is the probable paths where price can show
Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart:
The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation. Or simply wait the next liquidity spike to the next imbalance. align the timeframes together and the imbalances will become clearer.
16 hour chart
Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy.
The 16hour here shows the 40k is a great area where the price has a high probability of becoming a rejection fractal.
This zone here is a completion of a higher time frame fractal.
Combined with the Daily imbalance
Using the Fibonacci tool - the daily level shows us the 50% and the 61.8% retracement zones. Looking at the 16 hour, the zones align.
The corrective process here shows a good opportunity for buying opportunities to the patient.
Four day chart
The four day chart shows some key areas of interest where price will be ranging between 50k - 40k as a defined correction whilst price makes its way to the pivot point using the Fibonacci combined with the imbalances.
8 hour chart
The references here are self explanatory which work in line with the probable move of the correctional pattern path.
Please note, just because the Fibonacci sequence shows zones e.g. -0.272 where price can fall to, the price can reject the zero "low" as the imbalance upon a higher timeframe is still in position for the imbalance for buyers. In this case - the weekly zone is very much intact and still provides a structural imbalance for buyers, as opposed to sellers.
BTC VS VIX
The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix [see separate analysis for full breakdown]
Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing.
The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where;
orange = value area up
Blue = value area down
*showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high.
As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance.
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs ETH:
Notice the imbalance pattern?
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
See previous analysis here:
Master Key for zones
- Blue = Monthly
- Purple = weekly
- Red = 4 Days
- Yellow = 16 Hours
- Orange = Daily
- Dark Green = 8 Hour
- Grey = 4hour
- Pink = 1 hour
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 [using the monthly]. - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Monthly Imbalances
Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high.
Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone [see weekly chart].
The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high.
The probability of these occur where price breaks using the fibonacci rules as a second strategy.
Here is the probable paths where price can show
Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart:
The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation. Or simply wait the next liquidity spike to the next imbalance. align the timeframes together and the imbalances will become clearer.
16 hour chart
Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy.
The 16hour here shows the 40k is a great area where the price has a high probability of becoming a rejection fractal.
This zone here is a completion of a higher time frame fractal.
Combined with the Daily imbalance
Using the Fibonacci tool - the daily level shows us the 50% and the 61.8% retracement zones. Looking at the 16 hour, the zones align.
The corrective process here shows a good opportunity for buying opportunities to the patient.
Four day chart
The four day chart shows some key areas of interest where price will be ranging between 50k - 40k as a defined correction whilst price makes its way to the pivot point using the Fibonacci combined with the imbalances.
8 hour chart
The references here are self explanatory which work in line with the probable move of the correctional pattern path.
Please note, just because the Fibonacci sequence shows zones e.g. -0.272 where price can fall to, the price can reject the zero "low" as the imbalance upon a higher timeframe is still in position for the imbalance for buyers. In this case - the weekly zone is very much intact and still provides a structural imbalance for buyers, as opposed to sellers.
BTC VS VIX
The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix [see separate analysis for full breakdown]
Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing.
The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where;
orange = value area up
Blue = value area down
*showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high.
As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance.
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs ETH:
Notice the imbalance pattern?
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
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