bull market may run longer than you think
i've been thinking a lot about where cycle tops and bottoms might be, but it occurred to me that i hadn't given enough thought to when we might expect these tops/bottoms to occur. lengthening cycles are plausible, if not inevitable as the market continues to grow. and to the diehard 4-year-cycle theorists, i'll just say this: bitcoin will not be king forever. and even if bitcoin does remain the dominant force in the market for the foreseeable future, the 4-year-cycle will become less potent as each halving brings us closer to total BTC supply, and the rest of the market will gradually decouple from bitcoin.
as an ancillary to my top/bottom studies of the prior 2 cycles (see ideas below), i've made a quick projection for the bull market end date. based on the same rate of expansion we saw between the 2013 and 2017 bull runs, we can extrapolate 10/24/22 as the projected end of the current bull run. pretty simple. by no means to i expect this to be the exact date that the market tops, but i do think it can give us a rough idea.
market bottom prediction:
market top prediction:
for me, the takeaway is pretty simple: be patient. in this market we're used to everything happening at the blink of an eye. but now with so many players involved, and a market cap this size, we may need to wait a little longer for prices to consolidate and patterns to play out.
as an ancillary to my top/bottom studies of the prior 2 cycles (see ideas below), i've made a quick projection for the bull market end date. based on the same rate of expansion we saw between the 2013 and 2017 bull runs, we can extrapolate 10/24/22 as the projected end of the current bull run. pretty simple. by no means to i expect this to be the exact date that the market tops, but i do think it can give us a rough idea.
market bottom prediction:
market top prediction:
for me, the takeaway is pretty simple: be patient. in this market we're used to everything happening at the blink of an eye. but now with so many players involved, and a market cap this size, we may need to wait a little longer for prices to consolidate and patterns to play out.
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