Bitcoin Da Vinci Code
تم تحديثه
I am excited to the extent that I am shaking here. And I’ll be sharing all the tools below to get you build the same model and challenge my Da Vinci Code theory.
Let’s first start with my conclusion for you to challenge:
1. Bitcoin is heading to an ATH about 150k minimum this cycle. While the specific date remains in question as the model (the indicator I’ll be sharing below) estimates 45% duration increase after each halving. But I’ll skip this part for it can be traced better and closely in the green rainbow color which we didn’t enter yet, and no there’s no bear market till we get there.
2. While the indicator is built to project BTC Stock-to-Flow, I found it can be used to predict the Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Downtrend cycles of the market.
Let’s discuss the indicator model I applied here and how I used it:
1. Using Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Rainbow Indicator (I’ll refer to it SFR), you can see religiously that BTC followed 28-29 weeks increment in its cycles; i.e. four cycles between halving. Three cycles 28-29 weeks each, and one cycle 56 weeks (28 weeks x 2). There’s only one odd cycle of 17 bars in late 2012 early 2013.
2. From the 1st halving to the 1st ATH it took 53 weeks. From the 2nd halving to the 2nd ATH it took 75 weeks. From the 3rd halving to the 3rd ATH it will take 105 weeks if we take the 45% increase projection after each halving.
3. In April 2013 BTC dropped 83% from $266 to $44. Afterwards BTC rallied from $44 in April to $1240 in Dec same year.
4. In June 2017 BTC dropped 39% from $2,964 to $1,799. Afterwards, BTC rallied from $1,799 to $19,804.
5. In May 2021 BTC dropped 54% from $64,898 to $29,641. But this is NOT the bottom considering that BTC goes through a temporary short weekly bear market for one month that triggered recently on the week of May 17th. This doesn’t confirm if BTC will drop further from here or not, but it confirms that on the weekly chart BTC will not recover in 4 weeks time. The price is everybody’s guess.
6. Now you want some magic? Apply the SFR indicator to Alts. Total Cap.
Please play with this indicator on different time frames and even apply it to different crypto indices and share your thoughts below. To apply it correctly start with a clean sheet, use Bitcoin All Time History Index. And add Bitcoin Stock to Flow Rainbow Indicator. Then use your own indicators and parameters to make conclusions.
Let’s first start with my conclusion for you to challenge:
1. Bitcoin is heading to an ATH about 150k minimum this cycle. While the specific date remains in question as the model (the indicator I’ll be sharing below) estimates 45% duration increase after each halving. But I’ll skip this part for it can be traced better and closely in the green rainbow color which we didn’t enter yet, and no there’s no bear market till we get there.
2. While the indicator is built to project BTC Stock-to-Flow, I found it can be used to predict the Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Downtrend cycles of the market.
Let’s discuss the indicator model I applied here and how I used it:
1. Using Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Rainbow Indicator (I’ll refer to it SFR), you can see religiously that BTC followed 28-29 weeks increment in its cycles; i.e. four cycles between halving. Three cycles 28-29 weeks each, and one cycle 56 weeks (28 weeks x 2). There’s only one odd cycle of 17 bars in late 2012 early 2013.
2. From the 1st halving to the 1st ATH it took 53 weeks. From the 2nd halving to the 2nd ATH it took 75 weeks. From the 3rd halving to the 3rd ATH it will take 105 weeks if we take the 45% increase projection after each halving.
3. In April 2013 BTC dropped 83% from $266 to $44. Afterwards BTC rallied from $44 in April to $1240 in Dec same year.
4. In June 2017 BTC dropped 39% from $2,964 to $1,799. Afterwards, BTC rallied from $1,799 to $19,804.
5. In May 2021 BTC dropped 54% from $64,898 to $29,641. But this is NOT the bottom considering that BTC goes through a temporary short weekly bear market for one month that triggered recently on the week of May 17th. This doesn’t confirm if BTC will drop further from here or not, but it confirms that on the weekly chart BTC will not recover in 4 weeks time. The price is everybody’s guess.
6. Now you want some magic? Apply the SFR indicator to Alts. Total Cap.
Please play with this indicator on different time frames and even apply it to different crypto indices and share your thoughts below. To apply it correctly start with a clean sheet, use Bitcoin All Time History Index. And add Bitcoin Stock to Flow Rainbow Indicator. Then use your own indicators and parameters to make conclusions.
ملاحظة
So what does this model give us?1) We didn't get to ATH yet.
2) We will NOT enter a bear market till we get to the ATH.
3) The Stock-to-Flow gives a clear indication of each market phase, And we are still heading north with so much to accomplish over the coming months.
4) BTC will not do much in the coming few weeks before it ascends back up.
5) It is the best time to accumulate BTC
6) This indicator can be applied to other indices, that I am still playing with and would love to hear your findings.
ملاحظة
7) In the Orange, Yellow and Green SFR model, you buy the dips all the way till the ATH in the green rainbow stage.ملاحظة
8) After the ATH in the green phase of the rainbow BTC continues to drop with dead cat bounces till about halfway of the dark blue phase of the rainbow. Then the price starts going up moderately.ملاحظة
As per my theory, next week is the last week of the 29 weeks period that should mark afterwards an uptrend towards the new ATH. This will put my theory to the ultimate test if history will continue to repeat itself in stock-to-flow cycles or not. Let's see...ملاحظة
My Da Vinci Code Theory has confirmed today the start of the Bull Run. The rainbow turned to green as per every BTC previous bull run cycles. Now the estimate for the ATH is early Jan 2022. Let's see how this plays out from here.
Unless you figure a way to make money while you sleep, you’ll work till you die.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.