BTC alert: B ware wave B, possible wave C drop to 52.8k

تم تحديثه
Quick alert that we at a dangerous level for BTC.
Elliott wave concepts point to an ABC correction.
Mapped are possible wave B tops and C bottoms.

I do NOT think this is the likely next move.
But it never hurts to be alert and prepared.
So we watch the reaction at each fib for clues.

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Previous analysis that called the 73k top:
72,937 and 41 cents: BTC next target and maybe "a" top for now


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Subsequent mapping of retrace zones of interest:
BTC retrace from 73k: Key levels to watch for clues


I will post updates as price action dictates.

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ملاحظة
Bear's Last Chance?
لقطة
71,350-72,300 probably Bear's last chance to paint wave C ...

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ملاحظة
Danger Level increasing as we remain below 71,350 and droopy
لقطة

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Zoom IN (m15)
لقطة
Pretty clean rejection off bottom boundary of our zone,
Now of keen interest is thick blue Genesis fib at 69,096.
If bulls lose that fib, then bears will be keen to push hard.

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ملاحظة
DANGER level just INCREASED with loss of 69,096 Genesis fib
لقطة

Zoom IN (m1)
لقطة
Fib was Pinged (exact tests) and then next dip.
This could certainly recover pretty easily,
but such Pings raise the odds of dipping.

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ملاحظة
Relief bounce but into the core resistance again
لقطة
The resistance zone is about 1k tall, 71,350-72,300
Defined by the "Impulse Core" (0.382-618) of red fib down.

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Zoom in (m5) for a closer look at the last bounce leg:
لقطة
This leg was from the 1.236 fib to the 0.618.
The 0.618 to 0.382 is the "impulse Core" of wave down.
The Core is where expect maximum energy of the wave.

So this chart has been a Proof-of-Concept.

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ملاحظة
Yet another failure at the Resistance Zone:
لقطة
But the persistence of bulls is impressive.
Likely to test the upper boundary soon.
US market open in 8 hours might do it.

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ملاحظة
Danger Will Robinson, DANGER
لقطة
As pointed out by blue arrow in last update, that rejection might have done it.
Every dip below 69,096 increases the odds of wave C starting here and now.

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Zoom IN m3) لقطة We now have two MAJOR hurdles above :
1) Red 1.236 at 68,864, the sister of our local top red 0.618 at 71,350.
2) Blue 260.436 Genesis fib at 69,096 the major barrier that is now reinforced

IE: odds of 52.8k have increased dramatically today.

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ملاحظة
Double Danger Will Robinson, abandon ship!
لقطة
Wave C appears to be under way with gusto.

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Zoom IN (m1)
لقطة
62,238 immediate resistance, possible rejection to 65,255 next

Lets see what happens at 62,238.

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ملاحظة
Follow up to last snapshot on the 1 min:
لقطة
So far so good.

We might get a secondary push above the red fib at 67,238
but still looks likely to go lower to our 65,255 target.
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ملاحظة
Follow up to last pic: 65,255 target hit and surpassed لقطة
Lets see how this bounce goes

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ملاحظة
65,255 Genesis fib reclaimed by bulls
لقطة
But for how long? bounce is NOT impressive thus far, AFTER a pierce of the fib.

Adding a blue stripe fib to the last down wave;
لقطة
Blue 4.236 a guess for "Endpoint" of this wave.

So that gives us a precize zone for our retrace target:
لقطة
3 fibs forming zone $ 56.8k to 57.2k is the best guess right now.

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ملاحظة
Still on track to 56.8k
لقطة
Several bull traps but our plot still looks valid.

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Zoom in (h1)
لقطة
Clear and loud Pings on the red 1.618 then 2.236.
Such reactions add confidence to our 4.236 target.

We also got a Ping on the Genesis fib at 65,255.26
لقطة
So now that pair of fibs will be VERY STRONG resistance

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SUMMARY:
- Primary fib of wave down still in control.
- We now have serious resistance at 65,255
- Plot and targets are looking better and better.

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ملاحظة
Follow up to last Snap Shot:
لقطة
Two new developments both bearish:
1) Attempted retest of red 2.36 failed
2) Ping from underside of 3.236 for first time.

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Zoom in (m5) and adding Blue Striped fib to last leg down:
لقطة
The first guess of such a fib's destination is the 4.236, in this case at 57876.86.

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Zoom out a bit (m13) and include our existing fibs:
لقطة
Our blue 4.236 is pretty close to our originally targeted red 4.236.
So it possible that either 4.236 could end the entire correction.

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SUMMARY:
- Still on course to our original targets.
- It is possible we bounce a littel higher.
- Also possible is a bounce then new lows.

IE: We are ALMOST there!

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FibonacciSupport and Resistance

the Golden Ratio is my Religion
the Trading View is my Nation
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