Decision time for BTC
Been a while since I posted any setups, but to be fair not much has happened in the markets. SP500 being more volatile than BTC sounds weird but that is what we had recently until that last move up on crypto bringing Bitcoin to IMO a critical area of resistance at 100DMA and 21k. It has been respected before and while we could pop above it, if today's candle closes in red I would expect one of the presented scenarios to play out.
Both are bearish, despite the constant pummeling "FED pivot news", end of bear market etc. despite the macro outlook being nothing but bad. I feel like these days no bad news is bad enough to push risk on markets down, this bubble will burst eventually, we can't go into recession and have stock market sky rocket. Inflation has not topped out yet either. Caution is required if you want to go long and if you do, 21k is not the right place to do that.
Note that both red and blue scenarios get invalidated if we break above 100DMA, retest it and bounce further up. I think both red and blue have similar probability at this point, but as history likes to repeat itself, we are in a 2018 like situation prior to the final capitulation where BTC's price was also bouncing off 100DMA to continue to new lows after a period of trading flat.
Likely target for the RED scenario is 10-12k (this fits into my long term BTC projections, based on halving cycle and high timeframe trend lines as explained in attached idea)
BLUE could bounce from around 18k, observe price action when we are back down there again to determine likelihood and momentum of further move down.
Both are bearish, despite the constant pummeling "FED pivot news", end of bear market etc. despite the macro outlook being nothing but bad. I feel like these days no bad news is bad enough to push risk on markets down, this bubble will burst eventually, we can't go into recession and have stock market sky rocket. Inflation has not topped out yet either. Caution is required if you want to go long and if you do, 21k is not the right place to do that.
Note that both red and blue scenarios get invalidated if we break above 100DMA, retest it and bounce further up. I think both red and blue have similar probability at this point, but as history likes to repeat itself, we are in a 2018 like situation prior to the final capitulation where BTC's price was also bouncing off 100DMA to continue to new lows after a period of trading flat.
Likely target for the RED scenario is 10-12k (this fits into my long term BTC projections, based on halving cycle and high timeframe trend lines as explained in attached idea)
BLUE could bounce from around 18k, observe price action when we are back down there again to determine likelihood and momentum of further move down.
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