BTC - possible end of the major correction (H4/Daily)

١٧ يناير ٢٠١٨

Hello All!

What looked like an almost free fall at certain point today for BTC is currently halted.

The price re-tested Dec 2017 lows and bounced back being supported by really high stopping volume at point 5 of the grand Wolfe-wave.

However, it is hard to say if this is really the long-awaited end of correction or just a dead cat bounce - in the last case, BTC is likely to re-test strong demand zone at 9k which had already provided the base for the previous major move before (purple WW in the bottom left corner).

١٧ يناير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Both cases are possible, but it looks like this correction is getting close to the end.

١٧ يناير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

It appears that BTC found strong support at 9.2k and is being pushed up by gradual solid bullish volume increase:

If the price keeps its current gains and stays within grand pattern, next target to test will be line 2-4 around 15k area.

٢٢ يناير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Following the initial up move, the price created another minor WW which is currently working and broke 1-3-5 line once again. Volume spike indicates strong support area around line 1-4.


However, if the price keeps going South, recently touched low will be passed easily and BTC will try to find support around 7.6k

٢٥ يناير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Purple WW worked out successfully - the price reached line 1-4 and bounced back to form another minor pattern (blue). If it works as well, we'll see further decline of BTC. But if it doesn't, the next stop is still line 2-4 of the major wave (yellow) around 14k area.

At the present moment, the volume keeps lowering. This is definitely the sign of the price loosing momentum. Any further solid move in any direction will be backed by its significant increase.

٢ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Next level to be tested is ~7.8k

٢ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

7.9k test was accompanied by really high stopping volume spike

٨ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

BTC found strong demand area at 6k and the price returned to the bottom border of the major pattern:


Following that, the price formed minor WW (orange). If successful, it'll re-test 6.7k and may go to new low of 5.4k. If it fails, it opens the road to the upper border of the correction wedge at 9.8k
Strong move in any direction will be backed by solid volume change.
With diminishing volume at the present moment, it is hard to define which option will prevail:

٩ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Looks like the wave is working and in this case BTC is going to test 6.7k

١٠ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Another minor bearish WW was formed with the target of 7k. It is being currently supported by solid bearish volume spike.

However, the previous wave worked only half-way to originally planned target before finding support at 7.7k which sent price to the new local high of 9.1k

This raises questions about how much momentum this new WW contains. Even though it looks promising from technical point of view, it may not be enough to bring the price to new low to resume the downtrend.

On the other hand, if it fails, this will push BTC higher to attempt the breakthrough of the upper border of the wedge and to test the resistance at 9.5k

If the price settles in this area (above the upper border of the wedge), this will be clear indication of the return of the bulls:

١٢ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

The 2nd minor bearish WW is currently failing. The price is aiming for the breakout of the upper border of the wedge. If it succeeds and settles up there, bears should be aware of the bulls returning:

١٢ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Updating the previous post - upper border line of the wedge was moved occasionally, publishing correct version now. In fact, there are two possibilities on how to draw the upper trend line - both are being marked on the graphic now.
Big picture:

Local with possible further development of the situation - the price will try to form another WW (it may also be located above the higher line of the wedge).
But in either case, it'll most likely fail like the 2 previous ones due to the lack of strength on bears side:

١٧ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Both trend lines are clearly broken, no signs of reversal:

Full green ahead backed by solid volume spikes right after upper border breakup - correction is finally over! (knocking on wood just in case anyway :-))