Potential downside reversal 26-26.4K

٢٠ فبراير ٢٠٢٣Morning folks,

Last time we've discussed big 4H H&S pattern, with potential Head top around 26K. This week is supposed to be tough - Biden speech, Putin speech, PCE, Fed Minutes, multiple PMI's etc etc. Our fundamental analysis tells to not believe in "easing of regulation". In reality, regulation is becoming tougher, as world is coming to introducing of CBDC. Now not only crypto companies start getting business problems but related banks, persons, funds involved in this business.

Second is - we have clear signals that Institutional investors are leaving stock market gradually and replaced by households with 1.5Bln/week pace approximately. Fed will not stop tightening, and we treat current upside action as temporal, until slogan "Fed will ease" is working.

For now, we consider downside reversal in 26-26.4K area with downside target around 20K. This 1H butterfly could become the one that will trigger it.