Bitcoin Long-term perspective

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Overlaying sine waves on top of a long-term weekly chart of Bitcoin suggests that the price could have already peaked for this time period and the next dramatic rise will not occur until 2020.

Of course, this is only hypothetical based upon previous price movements. The result of the BTC ETF (due March 11th) if successfully passed could likely lead to a new price paradigm.

If we see BTC keep upward momentum outwith the red sine wave then we know that it is exceptionally bullish and ready for new highs in 2017-2018. On the other hand, if the price continues downward, we can expect a test of the bottom around August 2018 and test of a new high around February-March 2020.

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ملاحظة

Bitcoin price is approaching a potential area of resistance ~$1080. Will it double-top or punch its way upwards to $1100 and beyond this weekend?

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ملاحظة

BTC price punched through resistance at $1080 and managed to exit the turquoise sine wave in the chart. It currently appears to be facing resistance ~$1134 as has previously been expressed by the blue diagonal resistance line. If it succeeds in breaking through this line we are around $30 short of challenging last year's high. Momentum in relation to the upcoming ETF decision could possibly carry the price up to the $1400 mark.

Various sources have highlighted the chance of the ETF succeeding as between 10% - 25%. Which means that as the date approaches we get on shakier ground. And if it doesn't pass, the fall will be substantial. We also have to stay abreast of any news coming out of China. Deposits and withdrawals are still on hold across most exchanges and we also tend to get news from the PBOC when BTC is at a high which turns sentiment negative. Trade safe!