Bitcoin Daily Update (day 287)

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634

Previous analysis: “There is a ton of support from $3,000 - $3,200 and it is starting to look like the bearish momentum is waning.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8865 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5

*Looking at weekly chart*

Patterns: Hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,168 | R: $3,223
Formed a higher low and looks like it is going to retest all time highs in the next week.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0087%
Short term trend (2 week MA): Close below
Medium term trend (7 week MA): Trending down sharply
Long term trend ( 30 week MA): Trending down and right in line with parabolic SAR.
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Volume on Nov 19th tells me that close ($3,917) should act as strong resistance. Also in line with TDST level.
Candlestick analysis: Closed a new yearly low
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan Sen is right in line with 7 MA.
TD’ Sequential: R6 just opened. A13 just closed.
Visible Range: Huge volume node at $800 cannot be ignored.
Price action: 24h: +0.4% | 2w: -21.6% | 1m: -42.4%
Bollinger Bands: Full candle below the bottom band
Trendline: Not visible on the weekly, but appears to be holding strong

Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Still bullish but showing signs of a reversal. Price close below and there was just a death cross with the 9
Parabolic SAR: Weekly at $6,251
RSI: Weekly fell back below 30
Stochastic: Weekly is very bearish, diverged in a bearish manner below 20
Last Day Rule: Breaking through $3,500 would be setup day

Summary: I strongly expect that we will see some volatility over the next 24 - 48 hours. Support below $3,200 has been holding strong and so has the resistance from the trendline which is currently at $3,215.

Something is going to have to give and when it does we should see a big move. Yesterday I was watching the 1 hour chart turn bullish and it looked like that could provide enough for the bulls to breakthrough the trendline.

The daily candle failed to close above the trendline and now it is looking like another leg down is more likely than a bounce. My adjusted stop losses did not trigger and I am still in my short position. Based on the price action of the last 24 hours I am feeling much better about that position now than I was yesterday.

If we do bounce from here then there will be serious resistance waiting from $3,840 - $4,150 and that is where I would be expecting a reversal back to the downside. The lack of capitulation is the main reason why I remain confident that we have a long way to go before finding a bottom.