Bitcoin, will 200-Week EMA hold?

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Bitcoin has been printing a descending triangle in the weekly chart since second week of June. 200-Week EMA has provided continued support along this time, will that still be the case in the next weeks?

Last quarter of pre-halving year marks traditionally the last stretch of crypto bear market. I have doubts that this is going to be the case again in this cycle, so bear market may extend well into Q1 24.

I think that a downward movement will break through 200-Week and triangle. There is just too much headwind coming Bitcoin's way, central banks of main economies will continue holding high interest rates for a good amount of months. Recent jump in oil prices is going to put even more pressure in headline inflation. So essentially the liquidity Bitcoin needs is still several months away. S&P 500 is already setting lower highs and lower lows, and although correlation with Bitcoin is now low, it may well increase and drag its price down with it.

Note that this breakdown may well come quite suddenly. Differently from stocks and commodities, Bitcoin has a tendency of being apathic and then just move in sudden spikes.

It does seem that Bitcoin ETF is getting closer to be approved. Although I think it is a huge deal in the long-term, I don't think it will reserve the overall trend of the market in the short-term apart from a one-day shoot in price that will likely bleed down afterwards. In bear markets, and this applies to all crypto projects out there, essentially it doesn't matter how bullish a coin have news or developments to announce, it is extremely difficult not to follow overall bearish downward tendency.

Next support lines at $24,500 & $21,500.

We still are several months out a reversal in the market.

Good luck to all.