Bear or bull? The amateur perspective.
تم تحديثه
As we have seen the past few days, the bulls are clearly not ready to surrender.
In fact, I believe they are purposely exhausting the bears momentum at certain price ranges.
In the above chart, I have defined 2 bull levels, as well as 3 bear. Lord knows
the bears love to break supports, so I have labeled 2 absolute worst case scenario
supports that the bears may try to break. Currently we are 'finding support' on the 1st.
A very bearish outlook suggests we break out of the wedge the bulls are currently forming.
The second we break the wedge, I will update this with more bearish scenarios.
However, I think we will have a short term bull target of around $9,500 or so, possibly even $9,750.
The MACD on the 4hr is still showing a buy. Data for the moment suggest the MACD
could cross into a sell signal - something we really do not want if we are to remain bull.
Notice, however, the MACD is sitting on the edge of a rising support, with an apex forming
around the 23rd of May. Right now, we're at the bottom of support and showing a technical
buy signal, however, this isn't the smartest idea considering the price is falling.
Don't catch a falling knife. Don't be greedy, and don't listen to me. DYOR
The RSI shows a similar story.
Here you will see that we have regular bearish divergence,
but fairly strong medium-term Hidden bullish divergence. The hidden bullish divergence
comes into play during a reversal, because we are currently in downtrend. So this means
that the bulls are still very much so present. I believe we would of fallen a lot farther down
if there were no buyers around, but there are A LOT of buyers.
Notice the regular divergence but also notice the lower lows in RSI yet price lows are getting
higher. This means continuation of trend, or bear, BUT, the bulls are still around so a reversal
is becoming more and more likely as time goes on. When it happens, don't blink or you might
miss $300.
What does all of this information mean? Currently, we are in a short-term downtrend.
The bears are not fully in control as there are buyers present pretty much everywhere.
A reversal is due, a REAL one. The bulls are making their presence very known in the RSI.
Short term I believe we may be bearish.
Mid term I believe we are very bullish.
Long term? Enjoy your 400K-
1M dollar BTC by the end of the year ;)
If we get a STRONG impulse up from bear zone 1 or 2, I'd personally recommend
a 10% buy only for the fact that you'd be buying support, or the bottom of this price range.
$9,500 is take profit 1, $9,750 is take profit 2.
I'd recommend taking 33% or 1/3rd of what you bought immediately.
REMEMBER.
I still personally think something huge is brewing. This hidden bullish divergence has been
building and building and building and building and building.
FOR ALMOST 2 WEEKS.
In fact, I believe they are purposely exhausting the bears momentum at certain price ranges.
In the above chart, I have defined 2 bull levels, as well as 3 bear. Lord knows
the bears love to break supports, so I have labeled 2 absolute worst case scenario
supports that the bears may try to break. Currently we are 'finding support' on the 1st.
A very bearish outlook suggests we break out of the wedge the bulls are currently forming.
The second we break the wedge, I will update this with more bearish scenarios.
However, I think we will have a short term bull target of around $9,500 or so, possibly even $9,750.
The MACD on the 4hr is still showing a buy. Data for the moment suggest the MACD
could cross into a sell signal - something we really do not want if we are to remain bull.
Notice, however, the MACD is sitting on the edge of a rising support, with an apex forming
around the 23rd of May. Right now, we're at the bottom of support and showing a technical
buy signal, however, this isn't the smartest idea considering the price is falling.
Don't catch a falling knife. Don't be greedy, and don't listen to me. DYOR
The RSI shows a similar story.
Here you will see that we have regular bearish divergence,
but fairly strong medium-term Hidden bullish divergence. The hidden bullish divergence
comes into play during a reversal, because we are currently in downtrend. So this means
that the bulls are still very much so present. I believe we would of fallen a lot farther down
if there were no buyers around, but there are A LOT of buyers.
Notice the regular divergence but also notice the lower lows in RSI yet price lows are getting
higher. This means continuation of trend, or bear, BUT, the bulls are still around so a reversal
is becoming more and more likely as time goes on. When it happens, don't blink or you might
miss $300.
What does all of this information mean? Currently, we are in a short-term downtrend.
The bears are not fully in control as there are buyers present pretty much everywhere.
A reversal is due, a REAL one. The bulls are making their presence very known in the RSI.
Short term I believe we may be bearish.
Mid term I believe we are very bullish.
Long term? Enjoy your 400K-
1M dollar BTC by the end of the year ;)If we get a STRONG impulse up from bear zone 1 or 2, I'd personally recommend
a 10% buy only for the fact that you'd be buying support, or the bottom of this price range.
$9,500 is take profit 1, $9,750 is take profit 2.
I'd recommend taking 33% or 1/3rd of what you bought immediately.
REMEMBER.
I still personally think something huge is brewing. This hidden bullish divergence has been
building and building and building and building and building.
FOR ALMOST 2 WEEKS.
ملاحظة
PM ME for my FREE telegram channel where updates to my charts go FIRST.Much <3
teh Salesman
ملاحظة
Pay attention to the idea feed.This little drop we had is causing the bear ideas to come out in FULL FORCE.
YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS DONTCHA?
ملاحظة
As promised. We are now entering bear support 2 territory. I believe we may actually even break right through 2 and head to 3, due to the bears gaining momentum.This would also provide another majorly lower low in the RSI, while having a higher low in price longer-term supporting my theory.
So, $8,800 to $8,860 or so is the buy-zone should we bounce.
ملاحظة
CORRECTION:I recently realized from a good friend that we are oversold. MASSIVELY oversold on the RSI. Short-term as now turned bullish. I believe we will see a small bounce here, but will continue later on, towards bear support 2 or 3.
ملاحظة
Depending how high the short term bounce goes, we could have just finished wave 2 and are now on 3.Stay tuned.
ملاحظة
If these wicks continue, liftoff could be imminent.ملاحظة
We are now in zone 2.Stay tuned.
ملاحظة
We are in zone 2. Have no fear, and do not panic. If you sell here you may lose your ass. If you believe in BTC, believe that you will be rewarded for your patience.ملاحظة
Bear support 4 is now officially a possibility. MAN what a dump.ملاحظة
For future reference: $8,867 is the start of zone 3.ملاحظة
Technically, we have a sell signal.I wouldn't do it though. These little $200-$300 bounces are childs play compared to what you will gain if you are patient.
Remember, pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.
Good things come to those who wait.
ملاحظة
There once was a bear who now turned bull, He saw the hidden divergence and said oh hell no!
With his tail between his legs, he walked away,
Renewed with spirit, he tried to say...
But dad, the bears, they are too strong!
Little did he know, his dad went long.
Oh but a trick, he played on the little one,
He smiled with a grin, while bear-son went numb.
There are many lessons learned in this mini bear song,
Especially why his dad went long, little bear-son
Was starting to feel a little dumb
Little bear son saw the bulls painting charts,
Then and only then realized where he went wrong.
ملاحظة
Looks like we are dropping hard here everyone. Be careful as the bears could just start absolutely destroying supports.Be prepared though, the chances of reversal at this point are very high.
ملاحظة
Update!
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