Bitcoin: possibly bottomed at 5.800$

٨ يوليو ٢٠١٨

Hi to you if you are still interested with this market after the intense bearish pressure of the previous months.
Bitcoin has possibly bottomed at around 5.800$.
Weekly chart clearly shows a possible reversal trend start.
Btc was supported by the weekly 50 Smma, and nicely bounced on it which is very important and actually bullish, even if this looks weak.
Btc created a panic false breakout of the extremely important 6.000$ support, which is actually bullish. There is still a massive daily hidden bearish divergence though.


I feel some incoming possible bullishness : majority of people seems to be bearish, only a few people is currently trading, more shorts than longs, volatility is starting to be low, false breakout of a major structure support can start a rally. This clearly ressembles a post bottoming slow rally start. Bitcoin should normally try to retest the 6k area.

Of course Bitcoin could drop again and find new lows.
If we want to remain careful, which is a good choice in such a market, a stop loss could be set below 5.700$.
This could be an interesting contrarian trade to start beeing bullish, as the risk reward is very correct (you could lose 10% but there is a lot of possible upside).
Breaking the 6k support and settling below it after a weekly candle would signify more incoming downside with high probabilities.

٩ يوليو ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Previous Bitcoin rounded bottoms :

I am not saying Bitcoin is producing this type of bottom right now, but let's say i suspect it is trying to start forming one

١٠ يوليو ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Massive hidden bearish divergence might be taking effect, following bad news.
If the weekly rounded bottom is broken with a large bearish candle, well, there won't be anymore a rounded bottom, so this TA won't be valid anymore, and the previous TA would be valid.
Rounded bottoms can start forming and can fail during their formation process.

١٢ يوليو ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

"Bitcoin should normally try to retest the 6k area."
Still valid.
We need to see if Btc bounces on it, which i am expecting.
The bounce will let us see clearer of where we are in the crashing pattern, i am waiting for it as an analysis confirmation.

١٣ يوليو ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Alright, 6k area hit.
I am strongly suspecting we are at a particular area of the crashing structure.
If i would open some bets, i would say :
-Bitcoin will retest in 1-2 weeks the daily 200 SMMA (7.000$, 7.150$)
-this retest will forme large daily green candles
- people will shout to the moon
- they will be trapped and Btc will dive to new lows.

If this does not happen, then it means my analysis of the structure is wrong, and/or Btc is behaving differently from the previous big crash.

١٧ يوليو ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

A quick update to say this TA is still valid, a possible bottom around 5.800.
If this had to be true, which we cannot know yet, we will know it normally kind of soon, (i would say 1 month) if Btc keeps following the 2014 crash with a higher speed.

١٧ يوليو ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

From the 8th of July :

"Of course Bitcoin 9.03% could drop again and find new lows.
If we want to remain careful, which is a good choice in such a market, a stop loss could be set below 5.700$.
This could be an interesting contrarian trade to start beeing bullish , as the risk reward is very correct (you could lose 10% but there is a lot of possible upside).
Breaking the 6k support and settling below it after a weekly candle would signify more incoming downside with high probabilities."

This is what i am looking for in risky markets, good risk reward during contrarian trades, with a solid lose stop loss.
Of course i could have lost money in such a trade, as it's a risky one inside a risky market, i could have been rekt if 5.700$ was hit.
Hope it helps

٨ أكتوبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Title of this TA still valid for the moment