hedging against the bear market
تم تحديثه
at this point, my trading account is about %50 fiat/stablecoins. here's how i plan on handling the other 50% over the next few days:
in times like this, alts follow bitcoin closely. so when bitcoin surges, alts surge. price has been trending down for a while, without any correction to the upside, so probability would suggest we have at least one more chance to take profits.
scenario 1: if bitcoin can get on top of this downtrend line, it may have enough momentum to get up to the 40K range. i'll be taking profits on all my alts there.
scenario 2: if bitcoin continues down to the long term trendline (white line), even a dead cat should push price back to the upper 30s or even 40. i'll be taking profits on my alts there too.
it's also possible that BTC will bounce off the long term trendline and continue the bull run, but a break below it would signal the end for me, at least for the next month or two, if not longer.
good luck!
in times like this, alts follow bitcoin closely. so when bitcoin surges, alts surge. price has been trending down for a while, without any correction to the upside, so probability would suggest we have at least one more chance to take profits.
scenario 1: if bitcoin can get on top of this downtrend line, it may have enough momentum to get up to the 40K range. i'll be taking profits on all my alts there.
scenario 2: if bitcoin continues down to the long term trendline (white line), even a dead cat should push price back to the upper 30s or even 40. i'll be taking profits on my alts there too.
it's also possible that BTC will bounce off the long term trendline and continue the bull run, but a break below it would signal the end for me, at least for the next month or two, if not longer.
good luck!
ملاحظة
just noticed that the bitcoin futures expiry (5/28) happens to be right at the intersection of the short term trendline and the long term bull trendline. safe to say next week will be an exciting one! ملاحظة
trying to find support on top of that trendline now. i would expect to see somewhere in the 40k-43k range at some point this week. that gives you an opportunity to take profits on alts and get rid of any dumpy meme coins you might be still be holding (whyyyyy). i will take maybe 5%-10% profit on some alts if/when BTC hit's that 40k range, but at this point i'm not holding anything that i'm not prepared to sit on through a bear market. i still think a continuation of the bull market is equally likely. ملاحظة
i think it's likely to head back down to retest the lower 30s. if you're bearish, now would be a good time to sell/take profits/limit losses. should be a good buying opportunity ahead. 
ملاحظة
expecting a bounce here and that price will test some of the higher levels before another leg down, for anyone looking for another selling opportunity. still anybody's game though, could go right back into full bull mode. popcorn emoji.
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