Bitcoin - Bulls vs Bears: Who Will Win This Battle?

Market overview:

Daily Timeframe
The daily chart is the foundation of this analysis, providing a macro perspective on Bitcoin’s current market structure. Price is trading between two critical zones, one acting as support and the other as resistance. These levels have historically played a significant role in Bitcoin’s price action, making them key areas to watch for potential breakouts or breakdowns.

Currently, Bitcoin has tested the lower support zone multiple times, showing that buyers are actively defending this level. However, each bounce has been met with selling pressure near the previous support-turned-resistance zone, which indicates indecision in the market. This price action suggests that Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, where liquidity is building before a larger directional move.

There are two potential scenarios that will determine the next major trend:

Bullish Breakout:
If Bitcoin breaks above the resistance zone (the green-marked area on the chart), it would indicate a shift in market sentiment, with buyers taking control. This move would confirm that the recent downside movement was a temporary correction rather than a trend reversal. A clean breakout, followed by a successful retest of the level as support, would provide an ideal confirmation for a long position, targeting higher resistance levels.

Bearish Breakdown:
If Bitcoin loses the current support zone, it would confirm that sellers remain in control. A daily close below this level would likely trigger increased selling pressure, leading to a move towards lower support zones. In this case, a short position would be favored, with potential downside targets in mind.

Since price is still within this range, waiting for a confirmed breakout or breakdown is crucial before committing to a directional trade. Acting too soon, without confirmation, could lead to getting trapped in false breakouts or liquidity grabs.

4-Hour Timeframe – Liquidity Sweep & Bullish Reversal Signs
Looking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has recently swept a major low, a move often associated with liquidity grabs. However, price did not close below this level, suggesting that the move was intended to trap sellers rather than initiate a true breakdown.

Liquidity sweeps occur when market makers push price below a previous low to trigger stop-losses and induce panic selling before reversing the price direction. This failure to break lower could be a sign that Bitcoin is gearing up for an upside move, but further confirmation is required.


1-Hour Timeframe – Key Level for a Bullish Breakout
The 1-hour chart further supports the bullish case, as it also shows a liquidity sweep of recent lows, similar to what was observed on the 4-hour timeframe. This confluence strengthens the idea that Bitcoin may be preparing for a move higher.

A key resistance level has been marked with a black line on the chart. This level represents the most recent structural high that must be broken and flipped into support to confirm bullish momentum.

Trading plan for a long position:

1. Break Above the Key High – Price must first move above the marked resistance level to signal strength.
   
2. Retest & Hold as Support – A successful retest of this level as new support would indicate that buyers are in control.
   
3. Entry for a Long Position – Once support is confirmed, a long position can be considered, targeting higher resistance levels.
   

If Bitcoin fails to break this level, the bullish thesis weakens, and attention should shift back to the daily support zone for potential bearish continuation.


Upcoming Bitcoin-Related News & Events to Watch

While technical analysis provides clear trade setups, macroeconomic events can heavily influence Bitcoin’s movement. Some key fundamental catalysts to watch in the coming days include:

• CPI & Inflation Data (March 12, 2025) – Higher-than-expected inflation could negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin, while lower inflation numbers could support a bullish breakout.
  
• FOMC Meeting & Interest Rate Decision (March 20, 2025) – The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates will be crucial. A more dovish tone could provide a bullish tailwind for Bitcoin, while hawkish policy could lead to downside movement.
  

Final Thoughts

• The daily range is the most critical structure to watch, whichever level breaks first will determine the trade setup.
  
• The 4-hour liquidity sweep suggests potential bullish momentum but still needs confirmation.
  
• The 1-hour key high must be broken and flipped into support before looking for long positions.
  
• Macro events like CPI and Fed decisions could heavily impact Bitcoin’s movement.
  

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