Bitcoin / US Dollar:
1) From July 16 to August 22, 2017: Rally from 1830 USD to 4480 USD, with a final correction at 3753 USD. Trend reversal (up->down) happened at about August 17, 2017.
2) From August 23 to September 15, 2017: New Rally to 4964 USD (so, JUST below 5000), with a final correction at 2972 USD. Trend reversal (up->down) happened at about September 1st, 2017.
3) From September 16 to October 15, 2017: New Rally to 5830 USD (so, JUST below 6000), with some signs of an actual correction (October 16, 2017).
I believe that the third rally is already finished and that we are entering a downtrend. So, I think that NOW is a good time to SELL Bitcoin.
What will give the actual correction?
I believe that the price will go down to 4300 USD, which is the previous resistance level and also a whole number in the graph (upper red line). It corresponds also to Fibonacci's level 38.2%.
It is possible that it will go even lower to 3700 USD, which was the older resistance level. It is also a whole number in the graph (lower red line).
SO:
NOW, WAIT FOR BITCOIN TO GO DOWN TO 4300 USD OR EVEN TO 3700 USD. I DO NOT THINK IT WILL GO LOWER.
THEN, WHEN THE TREND GOES UP AGAIN, BUY (AGAIN) BITCOIN. IF THE PATTERN IS RESPECTED, THEN BITCOIN WILL GO UP AND TOUCH A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN 7000 USD OR A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN 8000 USD. THEN, IT WILL GO DOWN TO A REGION BETWEEN THE LAST ACTUAL HIGHS (5000-6000 USD = RED ZONE IN FIBONACCI IN CHART).
One observation:
Trend reversals of BTC/USD seem mostly to happen in the middle of the month (except the downtrend that started on September 1st, 2017). I do not know if it is pure coincidence and I do not know neither the explanation of why this is happening. We should check in next months to verify if this a pattern. For the moment, I propose to keep an eye for trend reversals when we are approaching in the middle of a month!
Feel free to add here your comments and ideas!
Nick