Since 25 June, bitcoin is under the downward pressure of 4H SMA30, and then this pressure has intensified with 4H SMA/EMA 20. Of course, the bulls made several attempts to break through the resistance, but these purchases were "weak". As a result, bitcoin rebounded from M/BB and M/KC down to the lower bands.
Yesterday, in a brief update, I pointed out that "... TIs start moving into bearish camp, might go to L/KC (20;2) ~5950, or even below..." As you can see, bitcoin sank lower to ~5750.
Let us analyze further movements:
1) At the 4H TF: Bitcoin struck down L/KC (20; 2) and L/BB, but did not develop a further fall on L/DC. If the bulls would fix above L/KC (20;1.5) and L/BB, then we can expect a small increase, which will meet R on the middle bands BB, KC, DC ~6000-6100. This is confirmed by "overheated" TIs: RSI=33, %R=-71, MACD=-72 (MACD < signal line), DMI=21 (bearish ADX, +DI < -DI), CCI=-211 (possible back test to -100) and negative FT.
2) At the daily TF: Bitcoin struck down L/KC (20;2) and touched the lower bounds L/BB (narrowing), L/DC. In general, the daily chart shows a down-trend, and this is confirmed by TIs: RSI=32, %R=-87, MACD=-385 (MACD < signal line), DMI=51 (bearish ADX, + DI <-DI), CCI=-135 and negative FT. Also EMA6 < EMA9 < EMA12 < EMA26 indicate that the situation is negative.
If bears would develop pressure, then we might expect touching down to weekly EMA100 ~5600-5650. In the negative scenario, bitcoin might go even deeper up to weekly L/KC (20; 2), L/BB and SMA91 ~4900-5100 (all these lower targets should not apply in this month).
So, the end of the month is approaching, and I remind you that since 2015 the monthly candle has never closed below EMA20 ~5800-5900 (as of today) and below SMA20 ~ 5100-5200 (as of today). Therefore, the current monthly candle should close above these MA.
Conclusion: the analysis shows that today bitcoin might reach middle bands BB, KC, DC ~6000-6100, where it would meet a turn down. Technically, bitcoin might do a deep test to weekly EMA100 ~5600-5650, where buyers might launch a "rocket". Thus, this model shows good opportunity to open short above 6000, and then long at 5600.
Good luck to all.