Aug 24

٢٦ أغسطسOverview:
As we begin the last week of August, we might be heading into a very turbulent period. On one hand, BTCUSD hasn't even broken its previous bull run's all-time high when adjusted for inflation. Neither the halving nor ETF demand was enough to push crypto higher, and now we have some altcoins like AVAXUSD trading 30% below their January 11th BTC ETF levels. On the other hand, the FED is finally planning to cut rates on September 18th, which could potentially loosen the printing press. Remember when it was going "BRRRR"? Well, it technically never stopped—just in the form of government spending. Unfortunately, that windfall doesn’t seem to reach speculative assets.

Congratulations on last week’s gains, with some coins such as ARBUSD, BINANCE:MATICUSD and AVAXUSD posting +30% gains. If you bought the dip, this is a great moment to take some profits, or at least move your SL higher.

This Sunday was the first in four weeks that didn't post a red candle, as we noted in a previous letter. But it wasn’t very green either, closing with a 0.11% doji. The red candle was merely postponed to Monday morning.

The U.S. Employment Report on Friday, September 7 at 8:30 am is crucial because it will provide key insights into how the recent interest rate hikes are affecting the labor market, particularly regarding rising unemployment and jobless claims. As the Federal Reserve continues its tightening policy, this report could signal whether the economy is heading toward a slowdown, which would influence future monetary policy decisions.

Quick note regarding TONUSD On August 20th, we mentioned that it "finished drawing its 'Motive' part of Elliott's wave pattern. In about 40 hours, it might finish drawing the B wave, presenting a short opportunity that will last throughout the C wave down." Unfortunately, the market witnessed the C wave not because of Elliott's wave but due to Pavel Durov being arrested by French police the moment his plane landed. TON crashed that day by 18.40%. Although Pavel isn’t the founder of TON, he is closely affiliated with it.

W: Reached BB MA. If bulls can hold the 63.1k level, there’s a chance for a 4th wave to 70k.
D: Held the important bullish W level of 64k. It’s better to have that buffer between 63k and $ 64k for bulls to regroup and go on the offense again. Currently at the upper bound of BB. If the next W level of 63.1k doesn’t hold and it corrects to BB MA, it will hit the D level of 61.8k.
4h: Losing the $ 64k level early Monday morning in the U.S.
1h: MACD divergence yesterday, on the 25th at 8 pm NYC time. We are now seeing the result of that divergence.

Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins didn’t hold as well as BTC over the weekend, correcting from the heights of the pump: UNIUSD 10% SUIUSD 9.56% NEARUSD 8.25%

Bull Case: BTC holds W levels and continues pumping with new strength toward 68.2k.
Bear Case: This was a classic bull trap—one last breath, one last wave, one last pump before a free fall toward 52.2k.

Fear and Greed Index: 56.2. We’ve been bouncing in the Neutral zone since May 19th with occasional and insignificant peaks into the Greed territory. However, even this chart has been drawing lower highs and lower lows.

Prediction: BTCUSD corrects to 61.7k

Opportunities, at W, 4h Divergences of Major Alts:
Since NEARUSD broke through its W resistance of $4.38 during the recent pump, it’s very likely to return to that level, which should at least become new support. This presents an 8.62% short opportunity.
SUIUSD has drawn a MACD bearish divergence on the D timeframe and has also just hit its W resistance level of $1. TP at $0.85, which is 10.00% away.
TAOUSD reached its upper W resistance. Correction to D level $304 could produce a 12.51% return.
FTMUSD is at its resistance level. There’s an opportunity to make 17% by shorting to its next W level of $0.40.