Harmonic Spike is a Risk for Bears Here.

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Bitcoin currently trades on a real make or break level.

Chances of a water fall break are high if we break the current supports but we also have to be careful of a spike high.

A double wick is something we can see a lot in tops.

Trailing stops to lock in profits on my crypto related shorts.

Still in if we downtrend, if we spike I want to bank profits and I can try shorting the spike again.

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If the D leg comes, expect it to be brutal.

It'd be a harmonic stop hunt and those are always ruthless.

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We need to hold above 60 000 for this to be valid.

Have been saying for some time now if we break there a waterfall event is very likely.

Really does look quite bearish right now at 65K.

But it's worth being alert to the risk as a bear. If you don't protect profits here they can quicky turn into a loss and by the time the easy short is setting up you don't want to short because you just got spiked out.

Classic downtrend rules would tell us the high is already in here.

Stop hunting rules tell us we have to be careful of rouge wicks even if the bear thesis is correct.

Wicks mean nothing in the grand scheme of things but they matter a lot to trading.

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If the support level breaks this setup is dead and no further updates on it.

But I do have running updates on the simple bear break pattern in this thread.

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Period of consolidation makes the rip pattern a bit less likely. The longer we range the more likely a break down is (Usually - there are exceptions).

Bias is more towards a bear break now, although I'm super cautious of the spike.

Last thing I want is to be caught in a spike and not able to short obvious spike out patterns.