Bitcoin's Next Move

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bullish consolidation with all dips getting quickly bought has painted an ascending triangle pattern which will soon (next thirty hours) be ripe for a break to probable upside continuation before major pullback

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A bullish entry should have been made in the $8900-$9050 range (if not already entered in the market).

The market wicked into the $9230-$9250 range (highs: $9242 and $9250) that was mentioned in the chart on the initial move up. The market then consolidated for several hours and made a low volume push up to a high of $9282 (in the $9270-9300 range mentioned in the chart). Overall, this move was weaker and less violent than could be expected from nearly three days of tight bullish consolidation.

I would be out most of all my longs by the wick to $9282 and now waiting to see how the market reacts to a potential (likely) rejection from $9300. Bullish consolidation or a bullish breakout with high volume may yield a buy signal, however bearish momentum divergence on 2-4h timeframes, potential higher timeframe hidden bearish momentum divergence, potential higher timeframe volume divergence, and general overextension to the upside warrant high caution for bullish entries here.

On the 4H, the following could be considered signals for a bearish entry for a pullback (or breakdown) on the daily: a retrace of the breakout (sustained break below $9070); an evening star pattern; bearish engulfing that isn't followed by bullish consolidation; a break of the lows of the consolidation period following the move up ($9126 and $9169); a low volume test of the highs (bull trap).

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ملاحظة

A further note on market weakness: there are now 2.5k less BTC shorts on Bitfinex and 1k more BTC longs on Bitfinex relative to long and short counts immediately before the breakout.

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ملاحظة

a more in-depth look of how this trade played out with the advised selling ranges denoted with red rectangles