Will the downward trend line hold?

٤ مايو

This is my first published idea. Im not very tech savvy, but here goes.

We are tracking a falling wedge and BTC corrected sharply, challenging the recently formed downward trend line. But now price action has mostly stalled over the last 10 hours. We are seeing bearish divergence on shorter TF's on the RSI and MACD.

BTC is pressed right up against resistance around $63,150. Bears must show up before buying pressure or sideways action forces PA outside our wedge. The trend line is relatively short compared to the upward trend line that just ended, this gives me some confidence that it will hold up on the short term.

There is also the hype created by the halving event that should be considered. There are many rookies entering the market providing more buying pressure that, in my opinion, has to some degree diminished bearish momentum and slightly offset projected price movements.

More over, news stories published concerning the crypto market seemed to have herded buyers and sellers to were whales would benefit most. They are herding newbies to buy lately.

Thank you for reading my opinion. I'm just figuring out how to use the charts here on my android, but I'll get more detailed on my next charts as I learn how to use them. Good luck and happy trading!

٤ مايو

ملاحظة

Let's watch to see if if BTC will bounce up of the broken trend line or do back down below it. If it does fall back under the trend line, bears could interpret this as a good sell signal and step up to squeeze bulls.

٥ مايو

ملاحظة

The fake break out had low volume and could not sustain itself, resulting in the reconfirmation and strengthening of the downward trend line. Bitcoin is trading at $63,378. EMA7, 25 death crosses appear on TF's 15 min, 30min, 1h, as of writing. MACD's increase in bearish territory.

Considerations: Although I haven't figured out how to highlight or display it, there appears to be a bullish W pattern visible on TF's 15min - 2H, that may come into play soon, however there's typically so trend to be quickly followed up with a downward correction unless of course there is heavy volume.

We can expect PA to fall to at least $58,598 which corresponds to the 0.5 fib retracement as marked in the chart.

Good luck and happy reading!

٥ مايو

ملاحظة

I find it noteworthy that on the twelve hour chart, the seven period EMA made a golden cross through the twenty-five EMA, yet Bitcoin failed to produce a reaction to it. Now, as I write we see why. Continue with the plan. Short it!

٦ مايو

ملاحظة

On the 2 hour TF the 7 period EMA has death crosses the 25 period EMA just now. Bulls are fighting hard to reverse the situation, but I don't think they will pull it off. Zooming out to the 4 and 6 hour TF's we see the MACD is diminishing and will soon turn red, signaling the next phase of this correction.

٦ مايو

تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا

Normally I ride out the retracements during down trends. But with post halving excitement I've had some disappointments with downward movements and decided it's better to be safe than sorry. I can re-enter my short if things change. I'm not emotional, just cautious.

٧ مايو

ملاحظة

WHY I EXITED MY SHORT: One of the factors that made me enter the position was the weakness of the bullish impulse. It was very evident when as mentioned above that the 7 period EMA made a golden cross through the 25 EMA without a notable reaction. After bulls started to look like they might defeat the down trend, I got thinking about that golden cross in terms of potential energy, like a rubber band that is stretched and ready to snap back at you.

When was the last time a 12 hour TF golden cross didn't have a reaction that day? The impulse will happen. 💯 And when it does, because it's delayed, the impulse will be stronger.

The angles and averages were also beginning to look more like PA finding support to lift off with.

Because I'm utilizing a buy and hold strategy that involves selling only during sure drops, I don't view holding a coin that is losing value, so long as I continue to accumulate, either by selling to buy back lower or ensuring that I have extra capital to buy more when I miss to much of a dip.

٩ مايو

ملاحظة

So, my trend line could have been drawn better, but it's ok because BTC has fallen back into it and going forward, I think PA will continue to respect it, as reality begins to sink in for bulls.

If BTC wants to maintain it's current level of volatility, it's going to have to find room for it to move, if we assume the wedge stays in tact, then down is the only real option, or sideways for a very short time before more downward action.

I hear talks of 42K and I just wanna say, I don't see that as a possibility in the near future, not just because it's so far outside of our wedge, but also because bulls have been dead set on 100K since 2016 and chomping at the bit not to let the wedge break to the downside, which is what would have to happen to reach 42K. Let's see what happens!

١٨ مايو

ملاحظة

Let's see what happens...