Max Fear Incoming

٢٩ مارس ٢٠٢٠

This is not trading advice. Merely hypotheses concerning potential trading probabilities. Do your own research.

The Macro is bearish. BTC price fell when the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently fell.

However, BTC price did not later rise to any substantive extent when the DJI flew up following QE announcements etc.

Accordingly, BTC is not, at least not at the moment, a 'safe haven asset'. This is so because the recent downturn heralded a flight from BTC to USD.

To make matters worse, the recently announced 'unlimited Quantitative Easing' did not cause BTC to rocket flight from USD to BTC (surprising as perhaps the main quality of BTC is that it is deflationary due to it's 21m coin cap).

This is my first post. I made comments to the posts of others iterating that we appear to be looking at a classic Wall Street cheat sheet market cycle, and that neither the 'denial' or 'capitulation' phases had not yet taken place, which if correct, would be a novelty in any complete market cycle.

I initially thought denial and capitulation would take place before the end of January 2020. I was wrong. I now think denial and capitulation will take place before the end of April. I may be wrong about that as well.

The attached chart (if it loads onto the post) is laden with junk I use when trading. If you do not like it, leave a thumbs down. It is my junk, I like, and a full time trader I do not have time to make charts that make you feel warm and fuzzy. In fact, please leave a thumbs down for this post anyway, because as a contrarian, I would prefer it.

The chart, if it loads and posts, shows the overall Macro bearish trend which has not yet been broken. There has been no structural change to the Macro (the down arrow). It also shows (the side arrow) the bull's efforts to break the structure to create the beginnings of a bull Macro (their failed attempt to do so). Finally, the chart shows a lightning symbol pointing to the current downward spiral, which I think will probably continue and lead to the denial and capitulation phases which have not yet taken place. I estimate a non-trivial probability of $4,800 followed by as low as $1,200 during the max fear phase. I intend to swing trade where I can, unless the chop is too savage, and buy at max fear levels.

Hope the junk on my chart makes you twitch. Please leave a negative review.