I'm still long at $7800 and took some profit so I could lower stop, but the bearish movement is now about 4 weeks old and we are well below the 200 SMA and closing dailies below the 200 EMA, so BTC will have a lot of work to do the remaining 30 days of this cycle to prove its ready to trend bullish.
If we end up with a left translated cycle or a failed cycle below $7k then I close my long (if not stopped out) and switch to a bearish/neutral posture and start to do more short term trading (likely both directions). I will not look for long term longs anymore. That doesn't mean we can't go up. It just means that I will need to see a full bullish right translated cycle that gets back above the major 200's for me to shift back into a long swing trade.
If we end up with a left translated cycle or a failed cycle below $7k then I close my long (if not stopped out) and switch to a bearish/neutral posture and start to do more short term trading (likely both directions). I will not look for long term longs anymore. That doesn't mean we can't go up. It just means that I will need to see a full bullish right translated cycle that gets back above the major 200's for me to shift back into a long swing trade.
If it make as new low, then we have a cycle failure and that could lead to a lot more downside. After $7k, there is a big volume gap with no resistance. Its possible we could flush that area again but I'm not eager to buy after a move to $10600 failed within a month.