BITCOIN, is the ETF approval a sell on the news event?

٢٠ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

Welcome back,
some times it's nice to just browse through the charts and find interesting patterns. There is no guaranty that chart history repeats it self, but, there is a chance to. In this chart I'm observing a pullback to 20k-30k area for the bitcoin in case the ETF approval which everyone is waiting for within the start of 2024 will be a sell on the news event.

First of all, I am absolutely bullish on BTC within the next years. But at this stage of trend I don't want to get in a long position anymore. There had been many chances earlier this year and the risk of profit taking is too high now. Also the fundamentals are already anticipated from the market for weeks now.

What can you see on the chart? Most important are the orange lines, marking the bottoms of a cycle. With purple lines I marked the most significant price actions, just every 12,5% for the actual cycle and 25% for the past cycle. The price reacted similar in both cycles and IF history wants to repeat itself, we could see a very long correctional movement starting from around 48-50k back down to 20-30k.

Obviously you can't make good trades on the weekly chart, so this is just for observation and it's important to find structures on lower time frames to confirm the move.

Let me know what you think about Bitcoin. All opinions are respected here :)

٢٩ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

News about the bitcoin approval are expected in early January. I would like to wait at least until the end of January for the price to decide for one direction. The most likely scenario is a growth to 48k-50k. This is the key resistance level and a pullback or even trade change is likely from this point. If it shoots over these levels, new ATHs are possible.

٨ يناير

ملاحظة

So far BTC is following the triangle by perfection. It will be very interesting to see if it will break the structure or respect it.
Please note, that it doesn't have to repeat itself, so even if there will be a rejection from around 50k, it would be a great spot to buy BTC around 35k

١٢ يناير

ملاحظة

Oh wow the spike matched perfectly with the triangle. Will be very interesting to see if we will have a decline over the next weeks and month. Personally I'm interested in buying BTC at around 30k.

١٧ يناير

ملاحظة

So far it is looking great for the bearish move. But please don't take it as trade idea. I only want to show you the big picture of Bitcoin, based on historical chart patterns. The price can easily variate within 10000 Dollars to the shown picture and still be valid.

٢٦ يناير

ملاحظة

40k reached easily. Now we have to take a closer look at the correction. As I mentioned, the levels 28k - 38k are interesting for buying. Most likely we could see a fast retest of the last highs before the high speculation about ETF approval began and a longer consolidation afterwards. If we get a pullback and another fall we could argue, that we saw a completed B wave of an ABC correction. I will update if I see this playing out.

٢٧ يناير

ملاحظة

I adjusted the horizontal support lines (purple) for more precision:

38484
32289

The others are unchanged.

١٣ فبراير

ملاحظة

It looks like BTC continues to built up an impulsive structure. Maybe we are already in the fifth wave, which could reach 70k. I will observe this closely as it could provide a very nice opportunity to get in a new cycle on a wave 2 retracement.

But still it could be possible that the 50k level brings the price down again towards 30k. We'll see within the next days I guess.

١٦ فبراير

ملاحظة

The idea of an impulsive bigger wave one is shaping more with the break out over the approval high. In this case the sell off after the announcement could be wave 4 and we are now moving higher in a fifth wave. Anyway it's way to early to confirm this pattern, as we need a five wave move up, followed by a three wave corrective pattern. The resistance areas are already on the chart. We have to see if a top is forming at one of them.

١ مارس

ملاحظة

The five wave move I mentioned in the last comment seems to be completed now. If we see a three wave corrective move towards 45.000 it should be the best opportunity to buy from. So far we don't have an obvious confirmation that a top is build at this point. But we are getting really overbought at this moment.

٢ مارس

ملاحظة

Keep an eye on the 65k area for the possibility of a deeper correction.

٦ مارس

ملاحظة

The structure is extending higher as expected, which is no problem. All this move should be a very big impulsive wave 1 that will end at some point. If there is at some point a deep retracement I would like to be on the side of the buyers to enter wave three. I think I will make an TV idea if that takes place.