Attention Bitcoin Holders: This Could Be Your Last Chance!

١ سبتمبر

Dear Colleagues and Traders. 😉

In this post, I intend to share my analysis of the anticipated trajectory of Bitcoin, supported by both technical indicators and historical patterns.

To begin, I anticipate that Bitcoin may experience a near-term rebound, which could be followed by a subsequent decline.

Before we delve into the specific details of this analysis, I recommend reviewing my previous post, where I provided a comprehensive overview of Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. This context will allow for a deeper understanding of the current market conditions.

⬇️Previous Post (Long-Term Perspective)

If you have reviewed that analysis, we can now proceed to examine the three critical pieces of evidence that substantiate the forecast presented today.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 8H / Current / First Piece of Evidence

This chart illustrates Bitcoin’s movements from June 7, 2024, to August 5, 2024, within a clearly defined descending channel.

Bitcoin remains constrained within this channel, with no breakout having occurred thus far.

The reliability of this channel is noteworthy.

This reliability is particularly evident when we examine the midline, which has acted as both support and resistance on five occasions, thereby reinforcing the channel's structural integrity.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Past Example 1

This chart, covering the period from April 14, 2023, to May 23, 2023, similarly displays a descending channel.

During this time, the price consistently encountered support and resistance at the midline before ultimately breaking out to the upside.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Past Example 2

Another example can be observed from January 11, 2024, to January 21, 2024.

This channel, although formed over a shorter timeframe, also demonstrated a similar pattern, with the price finding support at the midline before eventually breaking out upward.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 1H / Past Example 3

In this example, spanning from March 30, 2023, to April 5, 2023, we observe a comparable pattern.

The midline provided robust support, and the price consistently failed to close below it, further solidifying the channel’s credibility.

This setup also culminated in an upward breakout.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 8H / Current

Returning to the current chart, with the benefit of historical data, it becomes increasingly feasible to predict the future trajectory of Bitcoin's price.

If the current descending channel maintains its integrity, a rebound, supported by the midline, appears likely.

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✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Second Piece of Evidence

The second key piece of evidence involves the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart, where a "Hidden Bullish Divergence" is emerging.

In this scenario, the price is forming a higher low on the right side of the chart compared to the left, while the RSI is creating a lower low.

This formation, known as a "Hidden Bullish Divergence," often precedes an upward movement in price. Let us consider some historical examples.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Past Example 1

In this chart, dated around March 30, 2024, we observe a higher low in price on the right, accompanied by a lower RSI, indicative of a "Hidden Bullish Divergence."

This setup led to a price increase of approximately 13%.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Past Example 2

Another instance, from October 2, 2023, presents a similar pattern: a higher low in price with a lower low in RSI, signaling a "Hidden Bullish Divergence."

Following this formation, Bitcoin experienced a surge of approximately 114%, reaching a new all-time high.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Past Example 3

This example from June 25, 2024, also shows a higher low in price coupled with a lower low in RSI, confirming a "Hidden Bullish Divergence."

This setup resulted in a price increase of around 9%.

Now, let us return to the current chart.


✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Current

With these past examples in mind, it is evident that a "Hidden Bullish Divergence" is also forming in the current chart.

Should this pattern hold, we can reasonably expect an upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.

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✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Third Piece of Evidence

The final piece of evidence derives from Elliott Wave Theory, a concept that may appear complex but can be simplified.


Following a low of $48,888, Bitcoin completed an upward wave, peaking at $65,737.2. We are currently in the corrective phase of this wave.


This correction appears to be unfolding in the form of a "Flat" pattern, comprising three waves.
The final wave in this "Flat" pattern should ideally manifest as an impulsive wave.
At present, the chart suggests that an "Ending Diagonal" pattern is the most probable scenario, which could indicate a forthcoming rebound.


It is imperative to note that if the price breaches the current low, the "Flat" pattern will be invalidated. However, until such a breach occurs, a strategy of buying on dips remains rational.

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[Summary]
In summary, here is a recap of the evidence supporting today’s analysis:

⬇️ First Piece of Evidence: Descending Channel

The price is currently finding support at the midline of the descending channel.

Should this support hold, a significant rebound could ensue.


⬇️ Second Piece of Evidence: Hidden Bullish Divergence

The price is forming a higher low, while the RSI is forming a lower low.

Historically, such "Hidden Bullish Divergences" have often preceded upward price movements.


⬇️ Third Piece of Evidence: Elliott Wave Theory

We are currently in the corrective phase of an upward wave, likely forming a "Flat" pattern, with an "Ending Diagonal" scenario suggesting a potential rebound.

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[Conclusion]
In conclusion, based on today’s analysis, here is my trading strategy:


I have set a stop-loss at the $55,969 level and plan to accumulate Bitcoin on dips from this point forward.

The risk-reward ratio is highly favorable, and the stop-loss level is clearly defined, making this a prudent and strategic approach.

This concludes today’s analysis. I appreciate your time and attention in reviewing this detailed post.

Should you find it insightful, your support through a boost and a follow would be greatly appreciated.

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✔️ This analysis does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
✔️ It reflects a personal perspective and is provided for informational purposes only.
✔️ Any investment decisions should be made at your own discretion, and you assume full responsibility for any actions taken based on this information.

٣ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

[Post-Upload Perspective Update]


The "ending diagonal pattern" has now been broken to the upside.

I’m still maintaining a bullish outlook.

✔️ This is not a buy or sell recommendation.
✔️ It is a personal perspective and should be used for reference only.
✔️ All decisions and responsibilities lie with you.