Correction incoming?
تم تحديثه
Welcome to my daily market update (17/05/20):
We had a lot going on since my last update:
• Sentimental:
- Fomo kicked in again (I see more and more people talking bullish)
- A lot of hype news all over (Such as Elon Musk promoting BTC and others..)
livemint.com/news/india/elon-musk-reveals-bitcoin-holdings-to-jk-rowling-while-explaining-btc-11589692416431.html
- Fear Greed still has uncertainty, means people are cautious,
It’s good for both sides:
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/?fbclid=IwAR00MtvVaioh0dsR_ZIBTbOSo6MPkjQ-ZQnJrlg2hg2KUJ0e_bUdkyJRfGU
- From personal data I see that retail traders show 81.55% of traders are net long (ratio of traders long to short 4.42 to 1):
1. around 2 weeks ago (03/05) we were going down on net longs and going up on net shorts which driven the price up.
2. on the 08/05 we had sharp rise in net longs and sharp fall in net shorts which also which led to price fall out on 10/05, which caused net longs to drop.
3. On 13/05 net longs rose, and net shorts also rose while price was rising slowly
4. Today we had a sharper net longs rise, and sharper net shorts fall while price is rising – This might lead to strong battle today-tomorrow to close the price as high as possible, and tomorrow-3 days price should correct itself.
- And ofc’ the halving narrative is over :)
• TA:
- We closed as expected the CME gap
And it looks like we are forming yet another CME gap around 9400 (Closing weekly should be interesting, most likely bloody Monday will push down)
- The biggest triangle since ATH has still a lot of room for both directions:
Closing below weekly e21 should be extremely bearish, closing above weekly cloud should be a very good sign for Bullish continuation.
- If we get rejected by the weekly cloud, we have enough liquidity to push it back down:
- Mid-term is still super bullish, we are still riding a daily channel, we did a nice correction within the fib’ levels, we have golden cross of e50 and e200, and we still have plenty of room to push up before we get overbought again..
So but the dips is the smart thing to do unless we break this channel downwards.
Will this tunnel be enough to break the 10500? Or is this a bearish flag which will be enough to tear through the daily cloud?
• As you all well know, I’m focused on the big term bearish until we break it and close above 10500 with a bullish trend and enough supporting indicators.
We do see slow down on the bullish mid-term push, it looks overbought and struggling to hold these levels now as it creates more and more resists, we might see 1 more strong push but the correction is at the corner but more likely to correct… your mid-term focus should still be bullish (So buy the dips, as a correction is expected very soon), but should we break below 8900 with supported indicators then this correction is going to be much much deeper and might take its role for a few weeks-months (As according to the bigger-term bearish market).
Don’t forget that BTC halving real impact should happen within 5-7 months, so we still have time and it will fit the speculation before the next bull run.
We had a lot going on since my last update:
• Sentimental:
- Fomo kicked in again (I see more and more people talking bullish)
- A lot of hype news all over (Such as Elon Musk promoting BTC and others..)
livemint.com/news/india/elon-musk-reveals-bitcoin-holdings-to-jk-rowling-while-explaining-btc-11589692416431.html
- Fear Greed still has uncertainty, means people are cautious,
It’s good for both sides:
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/?fbclid=IwAR00MtvVaioh0dsR_ZIBTbOSo6MPkjQ-ZQnJrlg2hg2KUJ0e_bUdkyJRfGU
- From personal data I see that retail traders show 81.55% of traders are net long (ratio of traders long to short 4.42 to 1):
1. around 2 weeks ago (03/05) we were going down on net longs and going up on net shorts which driven the price up.
2. on the 08/05 we had sharp rise in net longs and sharp fall in net shorts which also which led to price fall out on 10/05, which caused net longs to drop.
3. On 13/05 net longs rose, and net shorts also rose while price was rising slowly
4. Today we had a sharper net longs rise, and sharper net shorts fall while price is rising – This might lead to strong battle today-tomorrow to close the price as high as possible, and tomorrow-3 days price should correct itself.
- And ofc’ the halving narrative is over :)
• TA:
- We closed as expected the CME gap
And it looks like we are forming yet another CME gap around 9400 (Closing weekly should be interesting, most likely bloody Monday will push down)
- The biggest triangle since ATH has still a lot of room for both directions:
Closing below weekly e21 should be extremely bearish, closing above weekly cloud should be a very good sign for Bullish continuation.
- If we get rejected by the weekly cloud, we have enough liquidity to push it back down:
- Mid-term is still super bullish, we are still riding a daily channel, we did a nice correction within the fib’ levels, we have golden cross of e50 and e200, and we still have plenty of room to push up before we get overbought again..
So but the dips is the smart thing to do unless we break this channel downwards.
Will this tunnel be enough to break the 10500? Or is this a bearish flag which will be enough to tear through the daily cloud?
• As you all well know, I’m focused on the big term bearish until we break it and close above 10500 with a bullish trend and enough supporting indicators.
We do see slow down on the bullish mid-term push, it looks overbought and struggling to hold these levels now as it creates more and more resists, we might see 1 more strong push but the correction is at the corner but more likely to correct… your mid-term focus should still be bullish (So buy the dips, as a correction is expected very soon), but should we break below 8900 with supported indicators then this correction is going to be much much deeper and might take its role for a few weeks-months (As according to the bigger-term bearish market).
Don’t forget that BTC halving real impact should happen within 5-7 months, so we still have time and it will fit the speculation before the next bull run.
ملاحظة
• Hope you are getting a lot of value from my updates.*******************************************************
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