Bitcoin - macro analysis, determining the potential peak of the
Hello, fellow traders. At the beginning, the first observation - we are in such a phase of the cycle that even I want to write something... :) It will be short and to the point. Not everyone will like it, because they don't assume that we get into the rockets, fasten our seat belts and fly immediately "to the moon". My previous analysis (unfortunately not available here, but it is on Twitter) based on a logarithmic chart and a simple RGR precisely measured the bottom of the bear market. When I drew it in April 2022, no one was convinced of such a possibility, no one wanted to see RGR at all. And of course, as I remember today, the voices saying "We will never be below 30k again!"
Coming to the heart of the matter, i.e. the current situation:
1. It seems very strange to me that we did not make a proper correction on the way to the current highs
2. Since we did not make a correction, I think it is very likely that we will make it by bouncing from the previous ATH.
3. The chart from ATH to the current moment looks like an arc movement to me
4. That's why I selected the "cup and handle" formation as an ideal one for drawing a macro projection assuming a correction from the previous peak.
5. I drew a line from the bottom of the bear market to the ATH and copied it above the current ATH to mark the top of the next bull market. Let me remind you that we are on the LOG chart.
6. In order not to limit myself perfectly to the lines from this simple measurement, I made two Fibonnacci retracements:
- One from the bottom of the bear market to now
- Second from the bottom of the last correction to now
7. I marked the peak zone between 5,618 fibo levels
8. I marked the correction zone between the 0.5 Fibo retracements
The potential peak according to this projection is $270-312k, but first we need to break the levels of the green zone.
To sum up, personally I am ready for correction and I expect it.
Greed is high, memes are going crazy - it's time to trick the street and buy it back in a few months, when they will be disappointed in the boom.
Coming to the heart of the matter, i.e. the current situation:
1. It seems very strange to me that we did not make a proper correction on the way to the current highs
2. Since we did not make a correction, I think it is very likely that we will make it by bouncing from the previous ATH.
3. The chart from ATH to the current moment looks like an arc movement to me
4. That's why I selected the "cup and handle" formation as an ideal one for drawing a macro projection assuming a correction from the previous peak.
5. I drew a line from the bottom of the bear market to the ATH and copied it above the current ATH to mark the top of the next bull market. Let me remind you that we are on the LOG chart.
6. In order not to limit myself perfectly to the lines from this simple measurement, I made two Fibonnacci retracements:
- One from the bottom of the bear market to now
- Second from the bottom of the last correction to now
7. I marked the peak zone between 5,618 fibo levels
8. I marked the correction zone between the 0.5 Fibo retracements
The potential peak according to this projection is $270-312k, but first we need to break the levels of the green zone.
To sum up, personally I am ready for correction and I expect it.
Greed is high, memes are going crazy - it's time to trick the street and buy it back in a few months, when they will be disappointed in the boom.
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