Next Volatility Period: Around January 10

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(USDT 1D chart)

USDT is maintaining a gap downtrend.

The gap downtrend is a sign that funds have flowed out of the coin market.

(USDC 1D chart)

I think that the price defense is being done in the short term because USDC is maintaining a gap uptrend.

If USDT continues to maintain a gap downtrend and USDC moves sideways or gaps down, the coin market may fall significantly, so be careful when trading.

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

USDT is showing an upward trend while maintaining a gap downtrend.

It is likely that this is the last upward movement before the downtrend, so you should think about how to respond to the downtrend.

In order to turn into a short-term uptrend over time, it needs to be supported in the 95863.11-97461.86 range or higher.

If not, it will eventually fall.

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USDT is one of the important stablecoins that support the coin market.

Since USDT is a stablecoin used worldwide, it is a fund that has a big impact on the coin market.

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93576.0, 94742.35 are important support and resistance points.

Therefore, if the price can be maintained around 93576.0-94742.35, the coin market is expected to show a large increase when USDT shows a gap increase.

If it falls below the 92792.05 point and shows resistance,
1st: 87.8K ~ 89K
2nd: M-Signal on the 1W chart
You should check for support near the 1st and 2nd above.

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Even if it rises above the 93576.0-94742.35 section and shows support, it must rise above the 101947.24-106133.74 section, which is the high point boundary section, to continue the upward trend.

If not, it will fall again, and at this time, the 93576.0-94742.35 section will play an important role as support and resistance.

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As I mentioned earlier, the key is whether it can develop into a movement to form a bottom section.

To do that, it needs to meet the HA-Low indicator.

Since the next volatility period is expected to be around January 10 (January 9-11), we need to see if the HA-Low indicator is generated after the volatility period.

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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.

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- ​​Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.

(BTCUSD 12M chart)

Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.

In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.

Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.

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(LOG chart)

Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.

Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.

Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.

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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.

In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.

The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.

Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.

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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.

How to view and respond to this is up to you.

When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.

However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.

This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.

Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.

1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15

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ملاحظة

I think the downtrend is starting to show strength because the body color of the candle has changed to red.

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ملاحظة

USDT is moving sideways, USDC is gaping down
If USDT and USDC gap down at the same time, I think the coin market is likely to record a large decline.

Accordingly, I think it is better to trade new transactions in the short term.

Considering the size of your free funds, you should check the stop loss point for the coins (tokens) you are currently trading and think about a response plan.

قبل ٥ أيام

ملاحظة

(Question) Is your view still the same?
(Answer)
If USDT shows a gap up tomorrow or is supported above 97461.86, your view may change.
Before that, I think it is a fake that rebounds before falling and reduces their volume.

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ملاحظة

#IBIT #BitcoinETF #BTC
Next volatility period: Expected around January 28-30

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ملاحظة

I think that the strength of the dollar is also an influence on the factors affecting the coin market.

DXY is an indicator that compares the value of the six major world currencies, the euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, with the US dollar by calculating the weight according to economic scale.

Therefore, I think that if DXY rises, the US dollar will show strength and the coin market will likely show a downward trend as a result.

If it rises to around 113.260, it is highly likely that the coin market is already in a downward trend.

The point to watch is whether it can fall below 102.097-105.668.

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ملاحظة

USDT appears to have stopped falling for a while.


USDC has gapped up by more than +1%.

I think this is evidence that funds have flowed into the coin market.

I think USDC has a weaker impact on the coin market than USDT, so unless USDT stops gapping down, it seems likely that USDC will have an impact on the price defense level.

Therefore, we need to see if USDT stops gapping down and turns into an upward trend.

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ملاحظة

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

From a trend perspective, if the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator rises above the price and maintains the price, it is likely to turn into a short-term uptrend.

Therefore, the key is whether the price can maintain its current position and rise.

However, since the Body color of the current candle is red, it cannot be seen that the trading volume is increasing yet, so we need to see if it turns green.

Since the interpretation of the OBV indicator is expressed by the color of the candle's body, it can be seen that the buying force is increasing when it turns green.

Since the BW and DOM indicators of the BW v3.0 auxiliary indicator are both located below the 0 point, it indicates that the downtrend is strong.