This week let's pick one small battleground to focus our attention on. I'll also show you two strategies.

The battleground first: Take a look at the 200MA (The white line) and how it is all that's holding BTC up and preventing it from falling back into the downtrend channel again. If BTC closes more than one candle below the 200MA that will increase the odds of going back into the downtrend channel. Going back into the channel could be part of a retrace or it could be BTC falling further down. There are only 3 places BTC can hit as part of a retrace and if it goes any lower than those 3 points BTC is effectively falling as opposed to retracing.

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Short term strategy: If BTC is on a healthy retrace it will go to the $8491.00 area and bounce up, any lower than this point and it is worth dumping it. You can start your buy order at around the 38.2% all the way to 61.8% and set an SL where you feel comfortable (But keep BTC on a short leash). You may want to wait a few minutes to set your SL, why? Because your exchange will reach down to where you are and close you out. They do that 100% of the time. Wait a while and then set it, as time goes by and price moves up it becomes a little more difficult for them to this shady stuff.
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Long term strategy: Put in a buy order at around $8800 and one at $8400 using a percentage of your capital. You can use these points of reference to put money into Alts rather than BTC. Meaning once BTC hits those prices you buy high performing ALts. In this strategy, it is up to you to put an SL (I always recommend it) but if holding for a few months then just let it ride.
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