BTC/USDT in final moments of a Bear Flag ?!?!

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Keeping it simple....
BTC is in its last moments of a bear flag. BTC has a chance of one last move up to $8650, but will then drop to about $7500.

Bears are in control.

Take your profits and be ready to buy back in on/around 05/19/2018.

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ملاحظة

When you start seeing headlines saying "BTC to the Moon", "BTC to 50K", "BTC to 100K".... That's your sell signal, and that's been going around in the last few days.

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ملاحظة

I am a believer that we are not done with the Bear Market. I believe we have had oversell conditions present us with profit opportunities, but not a return to mean.

I do believe we will eventually return to $6000, which will be the absolute return to mean.

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ملاحظة

The Bear Flag continuation has been confirmed. A Selloff in the crypto markets have begun.


If you would like to follow BTC using my Fib table, use the following points.
Works with Bittrex BTC/USDT chart
0.0 - $7090.00
1.0 - $8851.00
In my opinion, these are the correct levels to be watching. Place this Fib over the past few months and notice that it hits important points in history of the BTC chart.

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ملاحظة

On the Day chart, one could argue that this is a Double Bottom.
Although this is a valid thought, I don't think this is a Double Bottom specifically because of that long Doji Candle in the middle. That long Doji candle tells me that there are some Bears looking to push the price down.
if this was a Double Bottom, the Trading Volume would be my confirmation of a Double Bottom formation.

For now I will stick with the Bear Flag as the only thing confirmed.

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ملاحظة

Nice bounce back in the last hour, but not to be mistaken as a Bullish move.
Notice that it only bounced back enough to just barely touch that 10 EMA and was immediately met with Bears.
The price did get a little too far from the 10 EMA on the 4 hour chart, so this bounce was bound to happen.
In the end, all this ends up doing is resetting the RSI to the point it was when BTC was at $8700.

There is only one Bullish scenario to keep in mind... If BTC can simply trade sideways and allow the RSI on the 4 hour chart to return to 50, then the chance for a move to the upside becomes very possible. This will likely no happen in the next few days though, I'd say by the end of the week.

Otherwise... BTC is still in route to go down. Im staying out of these little bounces because once you consider trade fees and the small 2-4% gains, it's simply not worth the risk. You would be trading against the tide.

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ملاحظة

$7500 here we come!!!

BTC just broke that downward trend line.

$8000 is NOT a support level. BTC will pass right through it.
Best thing to do is just be patient and wait for that $7500 level.
Personally, I plan to wait for confirmation of support at $7500, and then place my order.

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ملاحظة

If I had to guess what to expect next, this would be it.
Once it breached that downtrend line with a convincing long red candle, it will be more difficult to get back over it.

This to note, the value looked like it wanted to do a bullish divergence after that initial drop, but that was not a change in direction. This was simply a bounce back to touch that 10 EMA line that it got too far away from.
Here I penciled in a simple prediction of both the value and the 10 EMA movement.

Of course, no one never knows what could happen, so a clear mind should always be the goal over trying to be a psychic. Always leave your hopes and biases out of the market. BTC never ceases to surprise me.

***BTW, if you are reading this, I am doing this for my own personal improvement of market reading. I am no expert, but I do wish to better myself in chart reading. I am using this as a sort of journal to see if I could call things before they happen based on patterns, indicators, etc.
View this as fun recreational & informative practice.***

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ملاحظة

Honestly, at this point, I am starting to think BTC is looking more and more Bullish.

I said in one of my early post, if BTC is able to hold its head above water, a move to the upside becomes more and more possible, and here we are today... BTC is not falling.

BTC looks like it can go both ways, sexually. XD

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أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

I hate to sound cocky, but I pretty much nailed the buy zone at $7500.

It went down as low as $7444, but still having a buy order at $7500 would be yielding an increase in your BTC's value against the dollar.

***If you haven't done so, please copy my Fibonacci retrancement and use it as tool of knowing if it is time to buy or time to sell. If the RSI is becoming oversold or overbought, the fib levels will tell you what price will likely be the limits.

Leave a comment or feedback.

I am currently trading Cardano ADA / USDT as well. This is a coin that is actually even more oversold on the last 24 hours and should be on your radar. I may post future ideas on that coin.
I do not trade very many coins at once, I keep it simple. I focus on only a few coins that show clear signs and are easily predictable, BTC is always one of them by default.

Happy Trading