Bitcoin - How to Trade Without Hype

٥ سبتمبر ٢٠١٨

This year confirms one important fact - Bitcoin is the King for all crypto coins. That's why when we talk about possible market movements for altcoins, we have to look at BTC market firstly. This year shows how strong is correlation between Bitcoin and altcoins. It's not good if we want to use risk diversification for our proper trading.

One more thing, I think we should note - without hype only Bitcoin keeps interest from the community. I can see it when I load the main page of TradingView where there are a great number of posts about Bitcoin only. I guess the authors write about Bitcoin because only this market can give good number of VIEWS and LIKES. For me it's a confirmation that Bitcoin and its movements are very important now.

That's why I write about Bitcoin as there are no reasons to talk about other crypto markets. I share with you my ideas about possible movements and I will be glad to read your opinions about the current market conditions and strategies you use now. Please, share in comments.

I start the market overview from the weekly time frame in order to understand better, the market conditions, important zones and possible price movements in long run. We can see that the price bounced from 6000.00 level. The market could not drop below this level, because this is the upper border of the strong support zone formed by the uptrend line, SMA100 and 6000.00 support level. The price moved upward and reached a new downtrend line. In this zone the price action can show us further market movements. We have 2 possible variants. If the price breaks it, we will get a good confirmation for further upward movement. When the price breaks the swing high at 8500.00 level, we will get a new swing high which will be higher than the previous one. In such way it will be a signal confirming the uptrend. In long run we will be able to follow the market trying to reach important 10000.00 and 12000.00 resistance levels. But look at the volume, it's so low if we compare it with 2017 year. Without hype and strong bulls it's rather difficult to break important downtrend lines and resistance levels. Only fundamental news can support the market, but where are they now?

I think the market is not stable now. We should not expect for strong trends. Probably the market bounces from the downtrend line and we will see a new falling to the support zone at 6000.00 level. It will give one more opportunity to buy BTC at 6000.00 level for long run, for those who missed previous opportunities. I don't believe now that the market can drop below 5000.00 level which is the bottom of the support zone, but I believe in sideway movement during several months. There are no reasons for falling below and the sideway movement seems logical. Buying from this zone can be a good idea for long term trading.

Signals from indicators:
- RSI moves between overbought and oversold zones and we don't have any solid signals from it
- MACD looks bullish but there are now power in the price movements
- DMI confirms range market conditions.

Conclusion: I don't expect any solid price movements for BTC without strong fundamental news. There are no hype any more and it's another factor which does not allow to start a new bullish trend for Bitcoin and other altcoins. In such market conditions I would like to stay away from the crypto and focus on Forex, Stock and Commodities markets.