BTC.Divergence Hypothesis.Version 3.Update

١٠ سبتمبر ٢٠١٩

A continuation of my previous post back in Aug. 12th and August 27th. Still tracking relatively well.

Observations
We are in a bull trend
We have not hit the weekly 20 EMA
We have on the daily, 10, 20 and 50 EMA squeezing
We have the weekly 10 and 20 EMA converging \ BB squeezing + approaching critical oversold area
We have the CME gap that is likely to be filled but not necessary now (8400 8900 range)

We know that in a bull trend in the triangle formation : Macro Pattern formation probability (Triangle)
Up-break probability = 45%
Down-break probability = 55%

Conclusion:
Keep shorting, taking profits until we have further information.
The big question, nothing would probably give information to what direction it will go.
My gut feel is that it will drop to touch the 20 EMA on the WEEKLY and then bounce. I have a feeling this might coincide with the CME Gap range.
After that, it will go up as it would also seem to be a fake bearish move when it drops.
We will just have to wait and see.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart


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