BTC/USD Secondary trend (part). Potential double bottom

٢٧ أغسطس ٢٠٢٢

Secondary trend (part). Logarithm. Time frame 1 day.



The potential double bottom with the 29% base, in case the support zone of the local lows will be held. Although, whether this double bottom will be confirmed or not does not matter at all because large market participants have been taking positions for a long time already. It can be seen not only by transactions and creation of new large addresses (middle order), but also by charts and trade volume of any liquid exchange. As with every new cycle, no matter how low the price is, the main crowd of small market participants who were eager to buy near the highs of the price - are waiting even cheaper. It's always this way….

Super resets hamsters in the accumulation zone in 2014-2015.
Could wait like 2014 – 2015 in the accumulation zone for inadequate squeezes? It's quite possible, under some grand trigger event you can scare everyone well, but they won't buy at any reduction, they'll wait even cheaper))). This is how psychology works. Look at the ideas below for descriptions and examples of squeezes in the accumulation zone for a huge percentage. But you have to keep in mind that liquidity was quite different back then, and it was easier to influence the price.

BTC/USD Just comparing % with the fall in 2013-2015

Right now, the price low from the peak was -74%. Bitcoin was down -83% twice in previous cycles in 11 years. In 2020, in an intermediate cycle with a short-term March “hit” during the beginning of the “carnival virus” by -73%, that is the value that is now. Cycles to cycles, charts to charts, whatever they want and whatever is rational they will do.

What's stopping you from doing what the big market players do and working from the average set price? Why would you inherit the hamster tactic of waiting for highs of highs or lows of lows? Work from the average set and reset price and don't be nervous. This applies to any cryptocurrency, but consider its liquidity. The less liquidity, the greater the probability of slippage, you may or may not use that, it's up to you.

Again, I recommend strongly looking at the 2014-2015 accumulation zone idea above. Now the same could be true. If there is another reset of the final capitulation to pull up to -82 (very quickly), it will be in the near term from a cycle position. In the ideas below, the main trend and the BTC halving, deconstructed every capitulation pullback in every secondary trend in bitcoin's history. See if this will kill your greed and sober you up.

BTC/USD Secondary Trend Cycles and Halving.

Public event dates
Ether's transition to new mining algorithms has interesting dates and name updates, Bellatrix and Paris, don't you find that?
Also, a masterpiece date-signal 21 09 2022 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve) meeting. It will be accompanied by Powell's press conference and the release of updated economic forecasts. Everything is already known ahead of time, just not what they suggest. The chart shows more important time zones than these, which will trigger the events described above (all probability no more).

The leverage of all exchanges total at the historical maximum.
I would like to point out that the total leverage of all the stock exchanges is now at an all-time high. This means that there will be unthinkable shaving of the margin, it's easy to guess that it will be mostly shorts. Although they always knock out stops (take liquidity) on both sides. For a very long time, they let the shorts earn. They get used to it. Then it will be like in 2019 on April 2. Massive margin stakes +29% in a day and a half when everyone was waiting for a tricep bottom.

١ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Local work.
Clamped in a super tight 3.22% range 6 days before the impulse to collect stop loss.
19666 - 20300, which is the 20610 zone (11 08 2022 - 11/666/20610).
The percentages to the local levels are shown on the chart.

1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNVEyfrEkPHzSsCd August +3072 BTC
2022 08 29 +1153 BTC
2022 08 30 +97 BTC
2022 08 31 0.0008 BTC

١ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

This is what this local area looks like on a larger scale.

٧ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Local work. -5.18% price decline to stop zone #1 from 19,666 to 18,601.54 The price is moving in a downward channel.

8 09 two events that could affect speculative markets:
1) speech by the head of the Fed.
2) decision on the ECB rate.

٧ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

This is how this important local area looks on a larger scale. On 6 09 (69) we came to the level of 18915.16 (18601.54). Under this price zone there is a concentrated liquid zone of stops. The key local dates in the update above are also worth keeping in mind in addition to the launch of Falcon 9

٩ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

A downtrend is broken (downtrend direction).

٩ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Exactly +9.6% from the indicated level of 19666 to the zone of 21613.67 (mirror zone of the previous local accumulation), the price exactly touched the red trend line like a wick. From the level of 18915.16 + 14%. Something similar happened on April 2, 2019, but the time was different then. The markets were not as interconnected as they are now.

The momentum is associated with the performances of 8 09 and the increase in the ECB rate on the euro (the antagonist of the dollar). Also, a similar speech was made by the head of the Central Bank of Japan and the decision on the Japanese yen (similarly to the antagonist of the dollar). #IndexA maximum. As soon as it declines, for obvious reasons, there will be a full-fledged bull run for all risky assets, i.e. stocks and cryptocurrencies.

We wanted liquidity and the arrival of big capital in the crypto sandbox, so get a constant correlation. Market maturation is about liquidity and interconnectedness, correlation with the major markets.

١٤ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Local work. Rollback (not fixing) from the reversal level 21613.67 (13) to the level zone 19666 at the moment. Price decreased by about -7-10% (stock market domino effect).

If the former support zone is broken through 19666-18915.16 (shown in green), then this downward channel is formed further which is shown. Its step is 20.67%.

Potential local reversal zones are logical and clear.
The stock market - bitcoin - alts. At the moment, that's how it is for now.
Don't look at bitcoin as something separate.
Money and liquidity came in—correlation came in.

١٤ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

This is what it looks like now on the line chart, the price at the middle of the meridian of the descending channel

١٦ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Downlink local operation. It is worth noting that after the merger of ETH (an important event in the crypto world), a significant amount of BTC was brought to the exchanges, therefore, a strong movement is expected (the trigger is #FOMC 21 in the first place) to it for about 4 more days. But it is possible that new unexpected events may appear that may affect the market earlier.

Time for the stock market and BTC
Time in New York, USA now
Probably not worth explaining why New York

١٩ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Local work. Today is the 18th, there are 3 days left until the important date 21, on which the direction of market trends depends (Bitcoin is dust). Levels (zones) of local movements on the chart.

Remember, bitcoin is "dust". Wherever the wind blows, he will.

٢٦ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Local work. The price flies further in the descending channel near the level zone 18915.16 (the zone of lows on 06 2022) at the descending local secondary trend line. Potential reversal zone in case of a breakout. This zone is a zone of confirmation/non-confirmation of the "double bottom" figure on the chart on a larger scale.

I strongly recommend that you pay your attention to the time zone of September 27-28. Events in the world can be reflected in the speculative instruments of bitcoin and the crypto market is no exception.

٢٦ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

This is how the secondary trend looks like in full and this zone is in it. Time frame 1 week.

٢٦ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

٢٧ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Time frame 4 hours. Pivot Impulse 5%

٢٨ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Momentum-squeeze +8.1% Stops of shorts in the local zone were brought down.

٣ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Still the same. Notice how the volume increases in the down channel (part of the big double bottom). Line graph for clarity.

Both bitcoin and all alts will go. Now, at the moment, periodically low liquid altcoins ("window zone") are pumped and at a significant percentage, buyback impulses in the range of the recruitment zone, on average, + 50-80%

١٢ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

The price is further held in the zone of narrow sideways clamping 18900-19800 (the liquid zone of the previous low before the local trend reversal).

Most alts are similar in similar zones. There are exceptions, but they are rare. Everyone is waiting for the denouement.

١٢ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

This is what it looks like on a line chart. The price is testing this support for the third time already 18915.16 Exit percentages in case of decoupling from this zone are shown. It is worth noting that the volume of trading decreased significantly as the price fell.

١٧ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

All the same, price further in 4.8% pinch zone above 18915.16 support with lots of trailing stops on both sides

٢٦ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

After a long clamping in the volatility range of about 4.8% and a squeeze to the downside of the secondary trend (red, the resistance of the downstream channel), a local impulse and a breakdown of it. The whole market perked up.

Consolidation and further movement is the realization of this double bottom. All alts will exit the accumulation channels in 4.5-5 months.

Failure to hold this reversal zone (part of the stops of the shorts are knocked out) - to begin with, a fall into the former local zone of clamping (double bottom support).

28 10 2022 settlement day for BTC futures on CME

٢٦ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

٣١ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة