BTC scenario for next few months
BTC recently broke the bear flag. In my previous analysis, I pointed out that this would happen, however I expected BTC to have relief rallies between the trendlines before finally falling to 28k. There is a wick to 25k which was possibly accentuated by the tether depeg.
The average crypto bear market from bull cycle top to bear cycle low is typically 1 year. If it works the same way this time, the low will be produced around November 2022- January 2023 before BTC will move upwards and then surge in the next halving for 2024. This scenario is in line with previous bear markets where BTC plummets, then chops sideways for months and finally capitulates to produce an absolute bottom near the 200 WMA. This has always coincided with an RSI of 30 or slightly less on the weekly, or an RSI of 43 on the monthly and BTC is currently close to these levels. We can expect BTC in this scenario to trade between 28-37k, perhaps until November where it could drop dramatically to 20-24k and finally find an absolute bottom. As usual past data is never an accurate predictor of future events, so this is just being put forward as a possibility.
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The average crypto bear market from bull cycle top to bear cycle low is typically 1 year. If it works the same way this time, the low will be produced around November 2022- January 2023 before BTC will move upwards and then surge in the next halving for 2024. This scenario is in line with previous bear markets where BTC plummets, then chops sideways for months and finally capitulates to produce an absolute bottom near the 200 WMA. This has always coincided with an RSI of 30 or slightly less on the weekly, or an RSI of 43 on the monthly and BTC is currently close to these levels. We can expect BTC in this scenario to trade between 28-37k, perhaps until November where it could drop dramatically to 20-24k and finally find an absolute bottom. As usual past data is never an accurate predictor of future events, so this is just being put forward as a possibility.
If you agree or enjoyed this idea, please press the like button. Thanks.
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